Monday July 30th NL Free Pick
Does the Tremendous Value on the Rockies Tonight Mean a Trap Is Set?
One of the lines that really sticks out in Monday’s MLB slate is the red hot Rockies traveling to St. Louis as underdogs (COL +130). Colorado has won 8 of the last 10 and are coming off a three game sweep of Oakland who had won 27 of their previous 34 games. The Cardinals just finished taking 2 of 3 from the Cubs but does home field alone make the Redbirds the bet in the July 30th NL free pick?
Can Colorado Continue Their Run As They Go On the Road?
The Rockies had struggled somewhat at Coors Field this season but they appear to have put those issues behind them after winning 10 of their last 11 at home. Even more impressive is that those wins came against Arizona, Seattle, Houston, and Oakland – all postseason contenders. The July 30th NL free pick sees the Rockies go on the road where they are a very solid 30-23 this season. The Rockies are 7-3 in their last 10 road games. Colorado has a very talented offense (Top 10 in runs/game, OPS, BA) but have largely been winning low scoring games lately. In 5 of the last 6, the Rockies have put up 3 runs or less. They have hit over .300 collectively against tonight’s STL starter Carlos Martinez however. Charlie Blackmon (9-17, .529) and Nolan Arenado (6-15, .400) have especially had success against the Cards’ right hander.
One of the main reasons that there’s great value on the Rockies tonight is because Tyler Anderson (6-3, 3.57 ERA) is on the bump. The lefty has had about as good of a month of July as possible. He’s allowed just 4 total ER in four starts this month (27.1 IP) and allowed more than 3 hits in a game just once over that span. The Rockies are 7-2 in Anderson’s last 9 road starts and he’s 4-0 away from Coors this season.
What Can St. Louis Expect From Martinez Tonight?
Overall the numbers look solid for St. Louis when Carlos Martinez (6-6, 3.39 ERA) takes the mound. The Cards are 7-3 in Martinez’ last 10 starts vs. a team with a winning record including 6-1 in the last 7 Monday games. That being said, overall the Cardinals are just 3-7 in the right hander’s last 10 starts and 1-4 in his last 5 at home. Not only that, Martinez hasn’t pitched since July 19th after going to the DL with an oblique strain. The Rockies are also 8-2 in their last 10 vs. a RH starter.
The July 30th NL free pick O/U has been set at what seems like a very low number of 8. This is partly due to the pitching potential of both teams, but also because the Cardinals haven’t exactly been tearing it up on offense as of late either. The Cards have put up 3 runs or less in 4 of the last 7 and the ‘under’ has hit in 5 of the last 6 for St. Louis (5 of 6 for Colorado too). St. Louis has minimal experience against Anderson, but have hit .450 (9-20) against him with Marcel Ozuna (3-5, .600) paving the way. Those numbers came in Anderson’s only start against the Cardinals back in his rookie year in 2016 however.
July 30th NL Free Pick Betting
The Rockies are an obvious pick today as they send a red hot pitcher to the mound riding the momentum of a 4 game winning streak. This contest has some serious trap potential but you just don’t know what to expect from Martinez in his return to the lineup. The Rockies have the hitters to take advantage of a bad Martinez outing and frankly oddsmakers have provided too much value on Colorado to pass up.
Free Pick: Colorado Rockies +130
