Minnesota is down – but they hope they aren’t out – heading into Sunday night’s Timberwolves at Mavericks Game 3 matchup. The T’Wolves managed to lose the first two games of the Western Conference Finals at the Target Center, so they’ve dug themselves an 0-2 hole as the series heads back to Dallas.
The Mavericks’ main goal now is to not get complacent as it seems like they have this series in the bag after winning two road games this past week. Oddsmakers only have Dallas as a -1.5 favorite, and 64% of the betting public like the Timberwolves to cover the +1.5.
Why Minnesota Has Value at +1.5
It wouldn’t have been a surprise if Dallas was favored by 4 or 5 points on Sunday after winning the first two games in Minnesota. That being said, the T’Wolves are only 4 points away from being up 2-0 in the series, losing Game 1 108-105 and falling in Game 2 109-108.
Even though they are down 0-2, it could be argued that Minnesota is still the better team here. They dropped Game 1 after a 7-game battle with the defending champion Nuggets in the semifinals and were up 86-79 heading into the 4th on Friday and lost after a Luka Doncic three-pointer with 3.8 seconds left.
The T’Wolves lost two close games despite not getting a ton of production from their big name players. Anthony Edwards is averaging 20 ppg this series after going for 27+ four times against Denver. Karl-Anthony Towns is averaging just 15.5 and Rudy Gobert only grabbed 8.5 rebounds/game in Minnesota so those players all can step up a little bit.
Why Dallas Has Value at -1.5
If the Mavericks already have two road wins this series, doesn’t being favored by -1.5 seem like a gift? Dallas was 25-16 at home during the regular season, and are 4-2 on their own court in the playoffs.
Saturday’s play doesn’t even have to be one on Dallas – just against Minnesota. The T’Wolves have no rhythm right now, with Towns shooting 6-20 and 4-16 in the first two games and sitting on the bench in the end of Game 2. Edwards has regressed a bit after a grueling Denver series and Mike Conley, Jr. is battling through a calf/Achilles injury.
Make no mistake even though Minnesota hasn’t looked the best in the first two games of the series, Dallas is also causing that. Kyrie Irving had 24 points in the first half of Game 1 and Luka Doncic had a 32/10/13 triple double in Game 2 – and those were both road games.
Free Timberwolves at Mavericks Game 3 Betting Pick
It wouldn’t be a surprise if Dallas came out on top in this game considering they’ve already won two road games this series – but this one also feels like one where Minnesota gets on the board. The Wolves have lost two close games without a ton of production from their superstars, and maybe a road game lowers the emotions a bit.
Free Pick: Timberwolves +1.5
