Even with an 82 game schedule it’s still going to take the last day of the regular season to figure out just where teams are going to be seeded. That’s the case in the April 14th Lakers at Pelicans betting matchup to see where – or if – these teams will be for the play-in tournament.
With a win the Lakers would clinch the #8 spot for the play-in tournament, meaning they’d get a second game even if they were to lose their opener. If the Pelicans get the victory on Sunday, they’ll avoid the play-in altogether and get the #6 seed which is the more preferable route. Oddsmakers have tagged New Orleans as a -3 point home favorite with public betting split nearly 50/50.
Why the Lakers Have Value at +3
It wouldn’t be a shocker to anybody if the Lakers won this game outright, so taking the +3 points almost seems like the default play. L.A. has won 10 of their last 13 including five of their last six on the road – while the Pelicans have dropped five of their last six at home.
L.A. is the type of talented, veteran team that can turn things on once “they’re interested.” Beating New Orleans would help the Lakers avoid a meeting with Kevin Durant, Devin Booker, Bradley Beal and the Suns (if Phoenix can beat Minnesota) and instead a rematch with these Pelicans which seems more preferable on paper.
Los Angeles has taken two of three from the Pelicans this year, including two very impressive throttlings. The Lakers have a 139-122 win and a 133-89 victory over New Orleans this season with Lebron James averaging 25.5 ppg in those two contests.
Why the Pelicans Have Value at -3
New Orleans does have a couple of double digit losses to the Lakers this season, but one of those games was in L.A. and the other was in Las Vegas as part of the midseason tournament. The only time the Lakers visited the Big Easy this year was a 129-109 Pelicans win.
Zion Williamson has a couple of big games vs. the Lakers this season, posting a 30 and a 26 point output. Williamson has 26+ points in three of his last four while CJ McCollum is hot down the stretch with 28+ points in six straight. The performance of those two has helped the Pelicans bring a four game win streak into the regular season finale.
The Pelicans could be getting reinforcements back for the playoffs with Brandon Ingram upgraded to questionable for Game 82. Ingram has been out since March 21st with a knee injury and may be rusty, but it’s better to have a 20+ point scorer in the lineup than not have him.
Free April 14th Lakers at Pelicans Betting Pick
This game is a tough one to call, and it’s the reason that public betting is split right down the middle. The Pelicans have won four straight – but all on the road and they were really bad their last home stand.
Ultimately, we have to lean on what the Lakers can do if they “put their mind to it.” Los Angeles wants to avoid a play-in tournament elimination game by falling down to the #9 seed and you’d think they’d like to also not to want to play the star-studded Suns.
Free Pick: Lakers +3
