The April 7th Heat at Pacers betting matchup could be considered the play-in before the play-in as just 1/2 a game separates #6 seed Indianapolis (44-34) and #7 seed Miami (43-34). The top six seeds make the playoffs automatically, while 7-10 participate in the playoff tournament so this is a big contest with just 4-5 games left in the regular season.
Miami has won four of their last five and are a solid 23-16 on the road but it’s Indiana who is the slight -2 point favorite likely because of their stellar 24-15 home record. The teams split in South Beach back at the end of November with both games going ‘over’ the relatively high total of 237.5. 66% of the betting public are backing the Heat in this matchup.
Why the Heat Have Value at +2
The public likes the Heat on Sunday (5:00 PM ET, Bally Sports) and they did look pretty solid on Friday night in a 119-104 victory over Houston as just -3 point favorites. Bam Adebayo had 18 points and 12 rebounds in that game and Jimmy Butler added 22 points but perhaps the bigger story for Miami was the return of Tyler Herro.
Herro had missed 20 games with a lingering foot injury, but still looked sharp while scoring 17 points in 25 minutes. Herro averages 20.7 ppg this season and getting him back obviously helps with Miami’s depth as they look forward to the postseason.
While Herro’s return is big news, the key player on Sunday is going to be Butler who has absolutely torched Indiana this year for 34.5 ppg with 29 free throw attempts in the two games. Adebayo should be a factor too as he only played 12 total minutes in the two meetings vs the Pacers this season after aggravating a hip injury on November 30th while missing the December 2nd contest.
Why the Pacers Have Value at -2
Sunday’s game is one of contrasting styles, as the Pacers the #2 tempo in the NBA while Miami has the second fewest possessions per game. Judging by the scores of the first two game, the Pacers earn their nickname with Miami winning 142-132 in the first meeting and Indy evening things up 144-129 two nights later.
While Butler went off against Indiana in both of the earlier games, Tyrese Haliburton went blow for blow with him in the first game with 44 points before being scratched in game two with a knee injury. Haliburton leads the NBA in assists (11.0) while adding 20.2 ppg.
Indiana is 9 games over .500 at home on the season and they haven’t had many chances to play at Gainbridge Fieldhouse with 6 of their last 9 games being on the road. The Pacers looked good at home on Friday against the #3 team in the West, Oklahoma City on Friday picking up a 126-114 win – their fourth win at home in the last five games.
Free April 7th Heat at Pacers Betting Pick
Miami played to Indiana’s pace in the first two meetings but oddsmakers have dropped the total 10 points for the final regular season contest between these two squads. That could mean the tempo goes more of Miami’s way, or it could be because Haliburton is listed as questionable with back soreness. Haliburton likely plays here and could rest at Toronto on Tuesday if needed giving Indiana the edge.
Free Pick: Pacers -2
