Sole possession of first place in the Western Conference is on the line Wednesday in the April 10th Timberwolves at Nuggets betting matchup. Minnesota (55-24) has had a stranglehold on the conference for the better part of the season, but most people believe they were just serving as a placeholder until defending champion Denver (55-24) decided to shift their mindset to postseason mode.
Despite a great year from the T’Wolves, they are still disrespected a bit in this spot as +6.5 underdogs. Minnesota has taken two of three meetings from the Nuggets this season, but 67% of the betting public still like Denver at home where they are 32-8. It should be noted that both clubs were in action on Tuesday, with Minnesota beating Washington 130-121 while the Nuggets topped Utah 111-95.
Why the Timberwolves Have Value at +6.5
It’s understandable that Denver is very good at Ball Arena, but for Minnesota to be getting +6.5 points on Wednesday seems disrespectful. That’s especially true with both teams playing on the second leg of the back to back, there just seems like a lot of variables that make taking the points seem appealing.
Minnesota did probably work a bit harder in their Tuesday night game, having to come back from a 10-point halftime deficit to beat the Wizards 130-121 as whopping -18 point home favorites. Anthony Edwards scored 51 points on 17-29 shooting so it will be interesting to see what he has left in the tank for the visit to the Colorado atmosphere. Rudy Gobert also had 19 points with 16 rebounds, but in 38 minutes so fatigue could affect him.
The Nuggets have had Jamal Murray (knee) back for the last two games after he’s been out since March 21st, but is it smart to play him for a second straight night with the postseason so close? Minnesota could get a break there.
Why the Nuggets Have Value at -6.5
Minnesota is on a heater with wins in 8 of their last 10 but Denver going 7-3 over that span isn’t too shabby either. The Nuggets were clicking on Saturday while beating Atlanta 142-110, tied for their highest scoring output of the season so this is an offense clicking at the right time.
Denver is a great team at home, but one of their losses at Ball Arena came recently against these Timberwolves 111-98 on March 28th. That was one of two straight games where the Nuggets were held to less than 100 points but a common denominator was that Murray was out for both of those. He’s questionable for Wednesday, but dropped 28 points in 27 minutes on Tuesday so is clearly ready for the stretch grind.
While Murray didn’t play in the most recent meeting with Minnesota, Nikola Jokic did and had 32 points and 10 rebounds against what many people think will be the Defensive Player of the Year in Gobert. Jokic has a 13+ rebound double-double in five straight games, with three of those contests being a triple-double.
Free April 10th Timberwolves at Nuggets Betting Pick
Both teams playing on the back to back does throw a wrench into handicapping this game. Ball Arena is a tough place to get a win, but Minnesota just did it at the end of March while getting just +3 points, no reason not to take the +6.5 here.
Free Pick: Timberwolves +6.5
