The Denver Nuggets host the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday night at Ball Arena. Tip-off is set for 9:00 PM ET. Denver comes in at 45-28, good for third in the Western Conference. Milwaukee is 40-31 and sits in fifth place in the East.
This is the second meeting between the teams this season. Milwaukee won the last matchup 121-112 on February 27. Both teams are playoff-bound but dealing with injuries to key players. The Nuggets are trying to stay in the top three out West, while the Bucks are still chasing home court in the first round.
Nuggets Preview – Jokic Questionable as Denver Starts Homestand
Denver has dropped three of its last five games as Nikola Jokic remains sidelined. Jokic is averaging 29.1 points, 12.8 rebounds, and 10.3 assists per game. He has missed five straight with ankle and elbow issues but could return during this five-game homestand.
In Jokic’s absence, Jamal Murray has taken on a bigger role. Murray is scoring 33.5 points per game over his last two outings and had 28 points and 7 assists in a loss to Chicago on Monday. Peyton Watson replaced Aaron Gordon in the starting lineup and scored a career-high 24 points.
Denver has a 23-12 record at home this season. The Nuggets rank second in field goal percentage and lead the NBA in assist-to-turnover ratio. Their offense depends on ball movement and spacing, especially when Jokic is on the floor. If he returns, the team should look more complete.
Bucks Preview – Milwaukee Managing Injuries Down the Stretch
Milwaukee is trying to balance wins with rest as the playoffs approach. Damian Lillard has missed three straight games with a calf injury. Jericho Sims is out following thumb surgery, and Bobby Portis remains suspended. That leaves the frontcourt short-handed and puts pressure on Brook Lopez and Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Giannis continues to produce MVP-level numbers. He’s second in the NBA in scoring with 30.2 points per game and sixth in rebounding at 12.0. Lopez had 23 points and 10 boards in the last game and is fourth on the team in scoring overall.
Milwaukee is 16-19 on the road and will need a strong showing from their supporting cast. With Lillard out, Kyle Kuzma, Torian Prince, and Ryan Rollins have had to step up in the starting lineup. The Bucks rank 15th in scoring and top 10 in three-point percentage, but their rebounding is near the bottom of the league.
Key Players to Watch
Jokic’s possible return is the biggest story. If he plays, Denver’s offense becomes much harder to stop. Even if he doesn’t, DeAndre Jordan has filled in well with 17 rebounds in Monday’s loss. Jamal Murray’s recent hot streak gives the Nuggets another threat either way.
For the Bucks, Giannis is the engine on both ends. He leads the team in points and rebounds and is playing over 35 minutes a game. Brook Lopez will need to defend the paint and hit outside shots. If Lillard is out again, Kuzma’s ability to create offense will be critical.
Bench production could swing the game. Denver got 18 points from Christian Braun off the bench last game. Milwaukee’s rotation has thinned due to injuries, so any extra help from the second unit would be valuable.
Stat Breakdown and Team Comparison
Milwaukee is shooting 38.2% from three, which ranks fourth in the league. Denver allows opponents to shoot 36.5% from deep, so perimeter defense will matter. The Nuggets have an edge in assists, while the Bucks are more efficient at limiting turnovers.
Denver scores 114.2 points per game and is top 10 in scoring in each quarter. Milwaukee ranks 15th in points per game and shoots well from the field but struggles at the free throw line. Rebounding is nearly even, though Denver leads in offensive boards while Milwaukee is better at blocking shots.
The Nuggets are 22-16 on the road and have covered just 34 times this season. The Bucks are 36-34-2 against the spread. Denver plays faster at home and has gone over the total in 44 of their last 71 games. Milwaukee has trended under in 11 of their last 13 away games.
Betting Prediction
Denver is a 3.5-point favorite with the total set at 226.5. The Nuggets are tough to beat at home, and Jokic might return. Even without him, Murray has carried the offense well enough to keep Denver competitive. The Nuggets also have the deeper bench right now.
Milwaukee is down several key players and has not played well on the road. Giannis will likely need a 35+ point night to keep them close. If Jokic suits up, Denver should win and cover. Look for a final score around 115-108 in favor of the Nuggets.
Pick: Nuggets -3.5
