Saturday afternoon’s Florida vs Georgia pick has implications not only for the SEC East, but also potentially the college football playoff. UGA sits atop the division with a 4-1 record, but 3-1 Florida can overtake the Bulldogs with a win, putting themselves in the driver’s seat for a berth in the SEC Championship Game.
The big problem with the #8 Gators as +3 underdogs in this game is that the #5 Bulldogs have won three straight in the series, all by a TD or more. UGA struggled last week in a 14-3 win at Kentucky as -17 point favorites. At the same time Florida rolled to a 41-17 win at Missouri as -13.5 road favorites. Does that give UF the momentum heading into this tilt?
Can Trask Rise to Greatness?
It’s been hard for Florida to stay in rhythm this season after missing two weeks due to a COVID outbreak. The Gators had to sit on their 38-41 loss at Texas A&M for 14 days before finally getting back in action last week against Missouri. Instead of coming out rusty or looking ahead to Georgia, UF rolled to a 24 point win behind 345 yards and 4 TD from QB Kyle Trask.
Trask is once again the key coming into the Florida vs Georgia pick. The Heisman candidate has 18 TD to just 2 INT on the season, and has completed 71% of his passes or better in three of four games. Georgia gave up 417 yards passing to Alabama’s Mac Jones in their week 7 loss.
The Florida defense also has a chance to make a statement on Saturday afternoon. The Gators held Missouri to 40 rushing yards on 23 attempts last week and gave up just 208 yards passing to the Tigers. The Gators were ripped apart for 338 yards and 3 TD by A&M’s Kellen Mond, while Isaiah Spiller also added 174 on the ground in week 6.
UGA Offense Struggling
Georgia can take some solace in the fact that Texas A&M’s offense ran all over the Gators, because there’s not a lot the Bulldogs have done on that side of the ball to give them confidence. UGA was in the game with Alabama, going into half 24-20 before being outscored 21-0 in the 2nd. Things didn’t get much better last week, putting up just 14 points at Kentucky as -17 point favorites.
The Bulldogs ran for 215 yards vs. Kentucky, but had just 131 through the air. Kentucky is 18th in the country in points allowed however, and it’s possible that Georgia was in the ‘look ahead’ mode. It’s been a rough past six quarters for the Bulldogs offense though.
On the bright side the Georgia defense held Kentucky to just 230 total yards. It was a nice bounce back after surrendering 560+ to Alabama. There’s quite a difference between Kentucky’s 103rd ranked offense in total yards compared to Florida’s #17 unit, that also ranks 6th in the country in pass yards/game.
Free Florida vs Georgia Pick
Georgia did win this meeting 24-17 last season as -6.5 favorites, holding Trask to 257 yards. The Bulldogs also had the stability of Jake Fromm at QB though, and so far Stetson Bennett IV hasn’t provided that same consistency, completing less than 60% of his passes and throwing 5 INTs the last two weeks. That’s a big edge for the Gators.
Florida 31 – Georgia 23
Free Pick: Florida +3
