It looked like the Big Ten Championship Game betting matchup was going to feature a Nebraska vs Purdue contest, but comebacks from both Wisconsin and Illinois in their respective games have set the stage for a showdown in Minneapolis.
The Badgers (21-12) had to battle a significant foul discrepancy to topple #1 seed Purdue 76-75 in OT while the Fighting Illini (25-8) had to come back by as many as 14 down before finally dispatching the Cornhuskers 98-87. Illinois has dominated this series in recent years, but are just -3.5 favorites on Sunday afternoon.
Why Wisconsin Has Value at +3.5
They say the only thing that matters in college basketball in March is momentum, and Wisconsin has definitely picked that back up. The Badgers lost 8 of their last 11 during the regular season, but this weekend in the Twin Cities have knocked off Maryland, Northwestern, and #3 Purdue.
Wisconsin has to like their chances against Illinois after slaying the dragon that is the likely 2X National Player of the Year Zach Edey and Purdue. The 7’4, 300 pound Edey essentially single-handedly fouled out the Badgers front court of Steven Crowl, Tyler Wahl, and Nolan Winter yet UW still prevailed against the 29-win Boilermakers.
Chucky Hepburn missed the Northwestern game, but returned to score 22 vs. Purdue while AJ Storr is averaging 25 ppg the last two. If Wisconsin can keep some of their bigs on the floor Sunday – which they should be able to do against a smaller Illinois lineup – the Badgers are a tough matchup.
Why Illinois Has Value at -3.5
The Fighting Illini just look like a team of destiny this weekend. Illinois was down 10 with 11 minutes left on Friday against Ohio State but rallied for a 74-77 win and then came back from 14 down to run away from Nebraska 98-87. The Cornhuskers’ last 8 wins had all come by at least 11 points including beating Indiana by 27 in the tourney opener.
Purdue shot 32 fouls against the Badgers on Saturday mainly by feeding the post, but Illinois has been getting to the line by attacking the basket. Terrence Shannon, Jr. has been the biggest purveyor of that, going 10-11 in FTs vs. OSU and 13-16 vs. Nebraska en route to a Big Ten Tournament record 40 points.
One major thing the Fighting Illini have going for them on Sunday is just a stretch of domination against Wisconsin as they’ve won seven in a row in the head to head series. That includes four victories in Madison where it’s traditionally very hard for opponents to get a win. Illinois won 91-83 at the Kohl Center two weekends ago behind 31 from Marcus Domask and 23 from Shannon.
Free Big Ten Championship Game Betting Pick
Shannon, Jr. looks like a man possessed right now and even though Thursday’s game was a 31-point blowout, the Badgers are playing their fourth game in as many days including a tough OT matchup on Saturday. When you factor in the Illinois dominance in the head to head series over the last 3-4 years it’s hard to back Wisconsin in this spot.
Free Pick: Illinois -3.5
