The Fighting Illini (24-8) survived a scare on Friday night being down 10-points to Ohio State, but they rallied for a 77-74 win and a berth in the Big Ten Tournament Nebraska vs Illinois semifinal game. Thing could get challenging for Brad Underwood’s team again on Saturday, as the Cornhuskers (23-9) looked dominant in a 93-66 victory over Indiana in their quarterfinal contest.
Nebraska can punch their ticket to the Big Ten Tournament Championship Game for the first time in school history with a win on Saturday afternoon. These two clubs played each other close in their lone meeting this season, with the Illini pulling out an 87-84 OT win in early February. Illinois is a -4.5 favorite for the rematch in Minneapolis.
Why Nebraska Has Value at -4.5
The Cornhuskers are playing well at the perfect time, winning seven of their last eight during the regular season and absolutely dismantling Indiana in a 27-point win that covered the -5.5 number without even a sweat.
A dominating victory is nothing new for Nebraska, whose last eight wins have all come by at least 11 points. Their 93-point outburst against the Hoosiers was their highest point total of the season as Brice Williams and Keiser Tominaga each chipped in 23 points while the Cornhuskers as a team shot 50% from the field.
Nebraska’s offense should have another solid day on Saturday with the Illinois defense allowing the 5th most points in the conference. The Fighting Illini gave up at least 77 points in six of their final seven games of the regular season and allowed 20+ to both Jamison Battle and Bruce Thornton of Ohio State on Friday. Illinois also had to scramble for a hard fought comeback win while the Cornhuskers were up 23 at the half to Indiana.
Why Illinois Has Value at -4.5
By all accounts the Fighting Illini played bad on Friday night – and still got the win over an Ohio State team that had been playing well with victories in five straight games prior. Marcus Domask shot just 3-16 for Illinois, Coleman Hawkins made just 2-4 shots, and the Illini hit on just 4 of 15 three point attempts and 21-32 free throws.
With Illinois surviving against Ohio State, they should have a new outlook for Saturday’s semifinal game. Terrence Shannon, Jr. scored 28 points vs. the Buckeyes and will be key again vs Nebraska as the #5 scorer in the country at 21.9 ppg.
It’s possible that Illinois just matches up well with Nebraska, because their meeting during the regular season wasn’t pretty but Underwood’s club still got the win. The Fighting Illini were an ice cold 9-34 from three point range in that game but got to the free throw line 30 times and held a 46-32 rebounding advantage.
Free Big Ten Tournament Nebraska vs Illinois Betting Pick
This feels like a game where #13 Illinois could be in trouble. The Fighting Illini struggled in the quarterfinal game and really probably should have lost to Ohio State while Nebraska looked crisp. Both teams should get their points (O/U 153.5) but the better value seems on Big Red and the points.
Free Pick: Nebraska +4.5
