NCAAB Big Ten Tournament Wisconsin vs Purdue Betting Preview
Badgers Aim for the Upset on Saturday
It’s been a successful conference tournament for the Badgers but the Big Ten Tournament Wisconsin vs Purdue matchup will be the third game in as many days for UW. With a win on Saturday the #5 seed Badgers (20-12) can make their first conference championship game since 2017 when they lost to Michigan.
The #1 seed Boilermakers (29-3) are gunning for their third straight trip to the B10 Championship Game, beating Penn State 67-65 for the title last season. Purdue swept both meetings with Wisconsin this season and can tie a school record 30-wins with a victory on Saturday in Minneapolis. The Boilermakers are -5.5 favorites for this matchup but it’s 58% of the betting public taking UW and the points.
Why Wisconsin Has Value at +5.5
Purdue only had three losses on the season, but each of them came against Big Ten opponents. The Boilermakers looked well on their way to covering the -8.5 point number on Friday against Michigan State with a 12-point lead in the second half, but the Spartans rallied and only ended up losing 67-62, even tying the game with under two minutes left. Basically Purdue is good, but they are not invincible.
The Badgers did get swept by the Boilermakers in two meetings this season, but played tough in a 78-70 loss at Purdue and in falling 75-69 at home. Matt Painter’s team also lost All Big-Ten PG Braden Smith for a spell vs Michigan State with a knee/calf injury, and his status for the semifinal game is uncertain.
Wisconsin has played well this weekend in Minneapolis, blowing the doors off Maryland 87-56 on Thursday and toppling Northwestern 70-61 on Friday. Those big wins help the Badgers preserve some energy a big, but A.J. Storr is still averaging 23 ppg in the tournament while Steven Crowl is chipping in 18 over the two games.
Why Purdue Has Value at -5.5
Purdue won both games against Wisconsin this season by more than Saturday’s -5.5 number, and like most teams in the country the Badgers had no answer for big man Zach Edey. The 7’4″ center had 25 points and 14 rebounds last Sunday in the meeting at West Lafayette and 18/13 in the win in Madison.
Edey was his usual dominant self on Friday night against Michigan State, scoring 29 points to go along with 12 rebounds. Lance Jones added 10 in that game but perhaps the bigger story is how Purdue held on to win even with Smith banged up, as the PG averaged 13.0/5.9/7.2 during the regular season.
Purdue wants a win on Saturday and another Big Ten Tournament title so they can put to bed the narrative that this team struggles in March. The Boilermakers squeaked by #10 seed Penn State by just two points in last year’s conference title game but then became just the second #1 seed to lose to a #16 in falling to Fairleigh Dickinson in the 2023 NCAA Tournament.
Big Ten Tournament Wisconsin vs Purdue Betting Pick
Edey is going to get his on Saturday – that’s a given – but does Wisconsin have enough firepower to keep pace? The Badgers lost both games against Purdue this season by more than Saturday’s -5.5 point spread, and playing their third contest in as many days doesn’t do UW any favors here.
Free Pick: Purdue -5.5
