The Gators have had a nice run heading into SEC Championship Game betting, winning three games over the last three days. Obviously fatigue could start to set in for Florida (24-10) as they head into Sunday’s matchup with #13 Auburn (26-7) in Nashville.
The Tigers are playing their third game in as many days on Sunday and are looking to avenge an 81-65 loss to the Gators in February. The Tigers are back in the SEC championship game for the first time since 2019, while the Gators are playing for the title for the first time since 2014. Auburn is a -5.5 favorite for this matchup and public betting is split nearly 50/50.
Why Florida Has Value at +5.5
The Gators are playing with confidence, knocking off Georgia (85-80), #19 Alabama (102-88), and Texas A&M (95-90). The thing that really sticks out in those wins is the offensive output as the Gators have averaged 94 ppg during the tournament, but that’s also not a huge shocker for a Florida team that ranked 7th in the country with 84.9 ppg and was 13th in the KenPom offensive efficiency ratings.
Walter Clayton, Jr. has been great during this tournament scoring 20.3 ppg including going for 22+ in the wins over Georgia and Alabama. The real key for Florida has been balance though, as Tyrese Samuel, Will Richard, and Zyon Pullin are all averaging over 15 ppg for the tournament while Alex Condon is adding 10.3.
Florida is a +5.5 underdog on Sunday, but they have momentum as well as an 81-65 win over Auburn last month to fall back on. The Gators never trailed against the then #12 Tigers and along with a solid offensive showing the UF defense held Auburn to 10-31 shooting from the field and 1-12 from three in the 1st half of that game.
Why Auburn Has Value at -5.5
The Tigers should have a significant endurance advantage in Sunday’s game, getting a 73-66 win on Saturday over Mississippi State after breezing to an 86-55 win over South Carolina in their SEC tournament opener. The Gators exerted a lot of energy on Saturday having to come back from an 18-point deficit to Texas A&M so they could be running out of gas.
Florida’s offense is impressive, but Auburn gets it done on both ends of the court ranking 10th in KenPom in offensive efficiency but 5th in defensive efficiency. The Tigers’ offense ranked 13th in the country scoring 83.5 ppg while their defense held opponents to 38.8% shooting from the field which was 5th best in the nation.
Much like the Gators, Auburn has shown scoring balance so far this tournament. Johni Broome had 18 points and 10 rebounds vs South Carolina while Chad Baker-Mazara went for 14 in the win over Mississippi State. Jaylin Williams also added 13 vs the Bulldogs after scoring just 3 vs the Gamecocks.
Free SEC Championship Game Betting Pick
It will be interesting to see how much Florida has left in the tank playing in their fourth game in as many days and against such a suffocating Auburn defense. That being said, the Gators are tearing things up on offense, and they’ve matched up well with the Tigers recently winning four of the last six head to head matchups.
Free Pick: Florida +5.5
