The #3 Fighting Illini (27-8) will look to advance to the Sweet 16 for just the second time since 2005 with a victory in the Duquesne vs Illinois matchup on Saturday night in Omaha. The Dukes (25-11) are far from just happy to be here even though they won their first NCAA Tournament game since the 1960s in the opener vs BYU.
The Dukes are +9.5 underdogs for this round of 32 matchup, but they were getting +9 vs. BYU but were up by as many as 14 in the second half before closing out a 71-67 victory. 66% of the betting public has faith in Duquesne at least keeping this contest close, if not extending their Cinderella run to next weekend.
Why Duquesne Has Value at +9.5
Illinois has the superior talent in this matchup and are battle tested after winning the Big Ten Tournament last weekend, but this is a program that has struggled recently in March Madness. The Fighting Illini have failed to get out the second round in any of their last eight trips to the Big Dance which at least has to give the Dukes some confidence for the outright upset.
The Dukes come into Saturday’s game with momentum, winning six of their last seven games of the regular season and then rolling through the conference tournament as the 6 seed to win the Atlantic 10 title. This is a team that started off 0-5 in A10 play, so they showed resilience in keeping things together.
The key to Duquesne’s success lately has been really cracking down on their defense. The Dukes have held opponents to 65 points or less in 7 of their last 10 to go with some opportune play on offense from Dae Dae Grant and Jimmy Clark III. Grant has 19+ in two of his last three while Clark has scored 16+ in four of his last six.
Why Illinois Has Value at -9.5
Illinois needs to take notice here that this Duquesne defense might be for real. BYU was the #22 scoring team in the nation during the regular season (82.2 ppg) but could only manage 67 points in the round of 64 even while hitting 15-17 free throws. The Fighting Illini also have the second best offensive efficiency in the country though behind only defending champion UConn.
Brad Underwood’s club is playing well, with their only loss in the last 9 games coming against then #3 Purdue, 77-71 in Champaign. The driving force behind Illinois’ success has been Terrence Shannon, Jr. who set the Big Ten tournament scoring record with 40 points against Nebraska, followed that up with 34 in the Championship game against Wisconsin, and had 26 in the round of 64 against Morehead State.
One of the criticism’s of Illinois was that they were kind of a one man team with Shannon doing all the work lately, but Coleman Hawkins had some big moments in the Big Ten Tournament while Marcus Domask posted a 12/11/10 line on Thursday for just the 10th triple double in NCAA Tournament history. Dain Dainja also had 21 points vs Morehead State as well as 18/8 in the conference tournament vs Ohio State so he’s playing his best basketball right now.
Free Duquesne vs Illinois Betting Pick
One thing to note about the successful run lately for Illinois is that they’ve needed second half rallies in every game in the Big Ten tourney and were only up one at the half against Morehead State. If Duquesne can avoid the second half pull away – and they have the defense to do it – they can keep this one within the number.
Free Pick: Duquesne +9.5
