NCAAB Tournament (12) James Madison vs Duke (4) Betting Preview
Underrated JMU Eyes the Upset
We saw the very popular #12 vs #5 upset on Friday and JMU looks to keep the tide rolling heading into the James Madison vs Duke matchup on Sunday afternoon. The nation may have been surprised by the Dukes dominating 72-61 win over Wisconsin, but this is also a 32-3 club.
Duke (25-8) dispatched Vermont relatively easily in their first round game (64-47) after suffering an upset to NC State as -11 point favorites in their ACC tourney opener. The Blue Devils are looking for redemption after falling to Tennessee 65-52 as a 5 seed last year in Jon Scheyer’s first year as coach. Oddsmakers have Duke as a -7.5 favorite for this matchup at the Barclay’s Center.
Why James Madison Has Value at +7.5
There are some strength of schedule issues playing in the Sun Belt, but this is a James Madison club that knows how to win going 31-3 in the regular season. Plus, many people consider the Big Ten one of the best conferences in the country and JMU beat then #4 Michigan State 79-76 in East Lansing in the season opener and then rolled over Wisconsin in their NCAA tournament opener.
James Madison matches up well with what Duke likes to do, ranking in the top 10 nationally in pick and roll points per play. Plus, the Blue Devils only scored 64 points against Vermont, who held Kyle Filipowski to just 3 points – giving JMU the game plan how to stop Duke’s leading scorer.
Duke obviously doesn’t need to recruit, they just pick who they want on campus but James Madison has some top end talent also. Terrence Edwards has scored 18+ in 7 of his last 10 while T.J. Bickerstaff (nephew of Cleveland Cavs coach J.B Bickerstaff) has at least 9 rebounds in five of his last seven while averaging 13.9 ppg during the regular season.
Why Duke Has Value at -7.5
The Blue Devils didn’t have a great tournament showing last year in Scheyer’s first season at the helm, but Tennessee was also a battle tested SEC team that had 25+ wins while the Sun Belt is a big drop off. JMU might seem like a team that causes chaos in March every season, but this is actually their first tourney birth since 2013 and they’ve never gotten out of the second round.
Filipowski drew some attention for only having 3 points on Friday, but he did grab 12 rebounds and dished out 4 assists. Not only that, Duke still won by 17 even with their leading scorer taking one field goal attempt and they found some depth with Jared McCain and Mark Mitchell both scoring 15 and Jeremy Roach adding 14 with Tyrese Proctor contributing 13.
Duke was ranked in the top 25 all season and is the #9 team on the KenPom overall rankings. According to those metrics the Blue Devils have the #8 offensive efficiency and are 22nd on the defensive end of the court, while James Madison is 65th and 55th in those rankings.
Free James Madison vs Duke Betting Pick
Regardless of the conference they play in, James Madison is still a 32-win team. That’s not saying Duke wouldn’t have gone undefeated in Sun Belt play, but +7.5 points is too much to give in tournament play.
Free Pick: James Madison +7.5
