NCAAB Tournament (13) Vermont vs Duke (4) Betting Preview
Catamounts Eye the Huge Upset
Obviously the quality of opponent has to be discussed, but the Catamounts (28-6) are red hot as winners of 19 of their last 20 heading into Friday night’s Vermont vs Duke matchup at the Barclay’s Center. John Becker’s team dominated the America East conference this season, but have only been an underdog once in the last three months.
Duke (24-8) eyes a better performance than last season’s NCAA Tournament, where they lost to Tennessee 65-52 in coach Jon Scheyer’s first year after taking over for Mike Krzyzewski. The Blue Devils have dropped their last two games, but are still -12.5 favorites over Vermont.
Why Vermont Has Value at +12.5
The Blue Devils played an insanely harder strength of schedule this season, ranking 31st compared to Vermont’s 173rd. That being said Duke does come into Friday night’s game in a bit of a rut, having lost at home to North Carolina in their regular season finale and then falling to NC State in their ACC Tournament opener.
Again, putting who they’ve played aside it’s undeniable that Vermont is coming into the tournament with momentum with a 63-61 defeat to NJIT being their only loss since Christmas. That’s a 19-1 run to close out the year fueled by the #9 scoring defense in the nation that allowed just 62.9 ppg.
Vermont does have a balanced scoring attack, which can be beneficial come tournament time on a neutral court. Five players averaged in double figures during the America East tournament with TJ Long leading the way at 14.3 ppg. Each one of the players who tallied double figures is also an upper classmen which helps against a blue blood like Duke.
Why Duke Has Value at -12.5
It’s really possible that Duke blows out Vermont on Friday night. The Catamounts won the America East tournament, but struggled to a 75-72 win over Albany (as -16.5 favorites), beating New Hampshire 66-59 (-17), and having to come back in the championship game to topple UMASS 66-61 (-8.5). The Catamounts are winning, but not playing as well as they should be according to oddsmakers.
Duke has lost two in a row, but North Carolina is a #1 seed in the NCAA Tournament and NC State got hot at the right time winning the ACC Tournament as well as their tourney opener 80-67 over #6 seed Texas Tech as +5 point underdogs.
The Blue Devils are the much more talented team here – obviously – ranking 7th in offensive efficiency on KenPom and 27th defensively (Vermont 160th and 61st) and the Catamounts are the 5th lowest rated team to make the tournament. Duke had five players average in double figures in the regular season and were the 13th best three point shooting team in the country.
Free Vermont vs Duke Betting Pick
The Blue Devils have dropped two straight and failed to get out of the first round in last year’s tournament in Scheyer’s first season. That has to have Duke on alert a bit, and although Vermont is very experienced they just might not be very good after dominating in a very weak conference.
Free Pick: Duke -12.5
