Two of the bigger bracket busters of the round of 64 meet up on Saturday in the Oakland vs NC State matchup. The Wolfpack getting here isn’t that big of a shocker because they are red hot right now, but the Golden Grizzlies upsetting the #3 seed Kentucky was one of the bigger surprises of the tournament’s first day.
Will it be a #14 seed or a #11 seed that makes next weekend’s Sweet 16. The path looks like it got a lot easier for NC State – but that’s also what Kentucky thought in round one. Oddsmakers like the Wolfpack as -5.5 favorites but public betting favors Oakland by a slight 53%.
Why Oakland Has Value at +5.5
Oakland guard Jack Gohlke became an instant part of NCAA Tournament lore after going 10-20 from three-point range to lead the 80-76 win over Kentucky as +13 point underdogs. Gohlke is a sniper that took 355 shots this season – and only 8 of them inside the three point arc. We know the Golden Grizzlies are going to take the three, so if they go in this is a dangerous club.
While Gohlke the Division II transfer got a lot of the hype after the win over Kentucky, Oakland is far from a one man team. Trey Townsend added 17 points and 12 rebounds vs. UK while DQ Cole had 12 points including the dagger three-pointer that put the Wildcats away for good.
The best thing a “Cinderella” team can do this time of year is believe, and Oakland has some nice momentum after winning five of their last six games of the regular season and then cruising to the Horizon League Tournament championship. They have an experienced coach in Greg Kampe who has led the program for 40 years, and play an NC State team that will be playing their 7th game in the last 11 days.
Why NC State Has Value at -5.5
While it’s true that fatigue could start to set in for NC State, when you’re on a heater like this you want to just keep playing. The Wolfpack finished 9th in the ACC and went just 9-11 in conference play but rattled off five straight wins last weekend to win the tourney and get the automatic bid.
NC State beat Duke, Virginia, and North Carolina in consecutive days to make the field of 64 so their tournament essentially started last weekend. The Wolfpack stayed hot with an 80-67 win over #6 Texas Tech on Thursday and now get an 11 seed instead of 3-seed Kentucky. Things are lining up nicely for coach Kevin Keatts and company.
Maybe the most impressive thing about NC State right now is that they are taking turns with which player has the hot night. Ben Middlebrooks (21) and Mohamed Diarra (17) both had career highs in points in the tournament opener against Texas Tech, DJ Horne had 29 in the Championship Game win over North Carolina, and 6’9 275 pound D.J. Burns, Jr. is a fan favorite that has scored 16+ in three straight.
Free Oakland vs NC State Betting Pick
It was a nice win for Oakland on Thursday, but Kentucky was also overseeded, very young, and had one of the worst defenses in the tournament. NC State is an experienced team that is on a run right now and their dominating play as of late should continue to the Sweet 16.
Free Pick: NC State -5.5
