Two teams that looked great on Friday meet up on Sunday night in the Clemson vs Baylor matchup as part of the round of 32. The Tigers (22-11) dominated New Mexico 77-56 even as +2 point underdogs in their opener while the Bears (24-10) wiped the floor with Colgate 92-67 to cover the hefty -14.5 point spread.
This is an ACC vs Big 12 matchup, so anything can happen at the FedExForum in Memphis. Oddsmakers have the higher seeded Baylor as -4.5 favorites for this meeting and 65% of the public like the Bears giving the points.
Why Clemson Has Value at +4.5
The Tigers have to be arguably the biggest “chip on our shoulder” team in this tournament after being an underdog vs New Mexico in the first round even as the #6 seed vs the #11 seed. All Clemson did was respond with a 77-56 win in which they held UNM to 19-64 (30%) from the field and just 3-23 from three.
Clemson winning with defense in their tournament opener is kind of surprising, because they’re a top 25 team in offensive efficiency. The Tigers have rattled off 75+ points in three of their last four which actually isn’t a surprise for the #4 scoring team in the ACC (77.4).
Besides being good on defense lately and solid on offense overall, Clemson’s biggest edge on Sunday may be experience. Leading scorer P.J. Hall (18.8 ppg) tested the NBA waters last season before returning for his Senior year while Joe Girard III (15.7) is a graduate.
Why Baylor Has Value at -4.5
There has to be something that the oddsmakers saw to make Clemson a +2 point underdog in their opening round against a New Mexico team that went 4-6 down the stretch in the regular season. The Lobos even lost at home to Air Force a month ago as -18.5 favorites so people should pump the brakes on the Clemson hype.
Not only is Clemson maybe a bit overrated (even though their adjusted SOS is 33rd), but it’s possible Baylor may be getting overlooked in this tournament. The Bears ranked 7th in the country in three point shooting (39.8) this year and 20th from the field (48.9) so this is a team that can find the center of the rim.
What makes the Baylor offense so good is their balance – and that’s also what makes them a dangerous tournament team. Six Bears players averaged in double figures during the regular season and BU had the #5 offensive efficiency according to the KenPom rankings.
Free Clemson vs Baylor Betting Pick
Baylor went 8-4 over the end of the regular season and they should end up squeaking out a win here. That being said, Hall leads a very physical team that beat #1 seed North Carolina in Chapel Hill last month and an outright win wouldn’t be a huge shocker. This feels like a game that comes down to the last possession so take the points.
Free Pick: Clemson +4.5
