A couple of legendary tournament teams meet early in 2024 March Madness on Saturday in the Michigan State vs North Carolina 2nd round matchup. The Tar Heels (28-7) are the #1 seed in the West Region and is playing in nearby Charlotte, but the Spartans’ (20-14) are always dangerous this team of year under legendary coach Tom Izzo.
Oddsmakers have North Carolina as just a -3.5 favorite for this meeting, which may seem on the low side in a #1 vs #9 matchup in the round of 32. Obviously the “Izzo Factor” has a lot to do with the line being lower and just 53% of the betting public likes UNC.
Why Michigan State Has Value at +3.5
Izzo generally gets the most out of his teams in March regardless of how the regular season went. That seems true again this year with the Spartans picking up a 10-point win over Minnesota in the Big Ten Tournament and then fighting valiantly with eventual #1 seed Purdue before falling 67-62.
MSU opened NCAA Tournament play with a dominating 69-51 win over Mississippi State as just -1.5 favorites. The Bulldogs had been playing well too with wins over LSU and Tennessee in the SEC Tournament but 19 points from Tyson Walker paved the way for the Spartans in Thursday’s opening round contest.
The Spartans didn’t do a ton to impress in the regular season, especially with the expectations from being ranked #4 in the preseason but once again you can’t overlook Izzo’s importance at tournament time. MSU is 15-4 in the round of 32 under Izzo.
Why North Carolina Has Value at -3.5
Michigan State looked good in the tournament opener, but they were also playing a Mississippi State team that dropped their final four games of the regular season. North Carolina also cruised themselves in the round of 64, dominating Wagner 90-62 to cover even the huge -25.5 point spread. That’s almost the perfect way to start a tournament – get a win and some experience to calm the nerves but have a big enough lead where players can rest for the quick turnaround.
Armando Bacot was great on Thursday, scoring 20 points and grabbing 15 rebounds in 30 minutes. RJ Davis went for 20+ as well and Jae’Lyn Withers showed the ‘Heels can have some depth off the bench with 16 points and 10 rebounds in 22 minutes.
One thing that can’t be overlooked is the big contingency of UNC fans that are going to be in attendance in Charlotte, just a two hour drive from campus on Chapel Hill. The Tar Heels have gone 13-1 playing in Charlotte in the tournament, and 35-2 in the state of North Carolina in general.
Free Michigan State vs North Carolina Betting Pick
How much is Izzo really a factor in this game, because North Carolina seems like an immensely more talented team. Michigan State lost four of their last five games during the regular season, which includes home losses to Iowa and Ohio State as double digit favorites. UNC meanwhile had won 8 straight before the ACC Tournament loss to NC State, and have a huge location advantage on Saturday.
Free Pick: North Carolina -3.5
