The Aggies are searching for some respect on Friday night in the TCU vs Utah State opening round matchup. USU is 27-6 on the year and ended the regular season ranked #20 but still only earned an 8 seed in the NCAA Tournament. Utah State is also a +3.5 point underdog against the Horned Frogs.
TCU (21-12) is favored on Friday night despite a rough end to the regular season and bowing out in the second game of the Big 12 Championship – albeit to eventual #1 seed Houston. Texas Christian has won their opening round game of the NCAA Tournament the last two years however, but 55% of the betting public still likes Utah State and the points.
Why TCU Has Value at -3.5
The Horned Frogs are not just favored over a better seed here, the -3.5 points is kind of a lot. There has to be a reason for that, and many bettors may be looking at Utah State just because they are a the #8 seed getting points against #9. This game seems kind of like a trap play on the 27 win Aggies.
TCU does have a number of reasons to take them to cover on Friday night. They are battle tested after playing in the gauntlet that is the Big 12 this season – a conference that sent 8 teams to the tournament. The Horned Frogs were just 9-9 in conference play, but being battle tested like that is a bonus come tournament time.
TCU will be fun to watch here if anything because they have some familiar names to hoop fans in Jameer Nelson, Jr. and Charles O’Bannon, Jr., players whose fathers were NCAA tournament legends. Emanuel Miller just had 26 points against Oklahoma in the conference tournament while Micah Peavy had 13 points and 11 rebounds last weekend against Houston so TCU has some upside especially after averaging 80.4 ppg during the regular season (39th).
Why Utah State Has Value at +3.5
The common sentiment is that TCU played in the tougher conference and the Big 12 was a beast this year, but Utah State was dominant in a Mountain West that sent six total teams to this year’s NCAA tournament. The Aggies went 14-4 in conference play to win the regular season crown for the first time since joining the MWC 11 years ago.
The Aggies fell to San Diego State 70-86 in the MWC tournament which wasn’t a great showing, but they had also won 8 of their previous 9 games prior. That is much better momentum than TCU has as the Horned Frogs lost four of their last six during the regular season and were knocked out of the Big 12 tournament with an embarrassing 60-45 loss to Houston.
Great Osobor comes into March Madness hot, posting a 21-point double-double in two of his last three games. The 6’8, 250 pounder averaged 17.6 points and 9.0 rebounds during the regular season but Utah State had four total players average at least 11 points per game this year. The Aggies were 6th in the country in field goal percentage, but also 3 best in opponents’ three point shooting at just 28.2%.
Free TCU vs Utah State Betting Pick
There are worse plays to make than a 27-win team getting +3.5 points. Although the seeding is closer, this game kind of resembles #11 New Mexico giving -1.5 points to #6 seed Clemson and Lobos bettors who overthought that win were on the wrong end of a 77-56 Tigers win. Don’t overthink it and take a good Aggies team that played in a good conference.
Free Pick: Utah State +3.5
