The Volunteers(18-3) have jumped two more spots in the AP Top 25, up to #2, behind only Purdue heading into the Tennessee at Florida betting matchup. Rick Barnes’ club has won four straight – all by double digits – and nine of their last 10.
The Gators (12-9) are in the middle of a ho-hum season, but have upset on their minds as surprisingly low +5 home underdogs on Wednesday night. Florida has rattled off victories in five of their last seven, but Tennessee has won five of the last six in the head to head series and has over 60% of the public backing on Wednesday night.
Why Tennessee Can Cover -5 Points
The Volunteers can cover the number in any of their final 10 games of the regular season for one major reason – defense. Tennessee has the #1 scoring defense in the country allowing 54.5 ppg, an opponent field goal percentage of 34.5%, and an opponent three point shooting mark of 22%. It goes without saying that the Vols rank #1 in adjusted defensive efficiency as well.
The defense has helped Tennessee cover some huge numbers lately, including a 70-41 victory over Georgia at -16.5 and beating LSU 77-56 at -11. What the UT has to worry about in the Tennessee at Florida betting matchup is a letdown game, as they are coming off a hard fought 82-71 over #10 Texas which covered the -5.5.
The good news for Tennessee is that their defense should have another big outing, as the Gators have been held to 61 points or less in three of the last four. Offense is working for the Vols too as their 82 points scored over the weekend was the most in their last six games powered by a career high 27 points from Olivier Nkamhoua and Zakai Zeigler having his second 22+ point outing in the last four.
Why Florida Can Cover +5 Points
The matchup doesn’t look great for the Gators , but the numbers do as the line is moving in their favor down from a +6 open to +5. Bettors could be banking on a letdown game from the Volunteers and in a sandwich game between the win over #10 Texas and with a meeting against #25 Auburn coming up Saturday.
Another reason the Gators can cover the +5 number is because this should be a low scoring, slow paced game (O/U 131.5). Tennessee’s defense is elite, but Florida is also in the top 25 in opponent field goal shooting (39.7%). UF has held six straight opponents to 65 points or less.
Tennessee beat Florida just 78-71 last January in their only meeting of the season. The Gators covered the +10 point spread in Knoxville and did so without leading scorer Colin Castleton. The Volunteers have made only one trip to Gainesville since 2019, and were dominated 75-49 when Florida was a +9 point underdog.
Free Tennessee at Florida Betting Pick
The public likes the Volunteers but the line is moving away from them, does that mean a close game is on tap here? Three of Florida’s last four losses have come by three points or less and the Gators have covered in five of their last six.
Free Pick: Florida +5
