One of the biggest laughing stocks of the 2023 college football season was the Hawkeye offense, but has anything changed heading into Saturday’s season opening Illinois State at Iowa matchup? Kirk Ferentz’s team famously had more punts than points in one game last year.
Iowa is a -24 point favorite in this spot, so if they cover that number it won’t take a whole lot more to get to the over of 41. Then again the Hawkeyes are ranked #24 in the preseason poll and are immensely more talented than FCS program Illinois State so could this be a 26-0 Hawkeyes win? Ladies and Gentlemen, the beauties of college football betting.
Why Under 41 Has Value on Saturday
The 2022 Iowa season opener saw the Hawkeyes punt 10 times in their 7-3 win over South Dakota State while the Aggies also gained just 120 total yards of offense. That year the under was 8-4 for the Hawkeyes, but in 2023 that number jumped to an almost astonishing 12-2.
Last year the Hawkeyes had the #7 total defense in the country (282.5) and allowed the 4th fewest points (14.8) to go along with an offense that was 4th worst in the country scoring 15.4 ppg. The Hawkeyes offense will once again be hit or miss, but the defense is going to be great again. Jay Higgins (171 tackles) and Nick Jackson (110) are both back in the middle to swallow up anything that gets to the second level.
Illinois State can play some defense too – albeit against lesser opponents. The Redbirds ranked #22 in scoring defense in the FCS last season (20.5 ppg) and return their top 7 tackle leaders from a year ago. LB Amir Abdullah was a 1st team All MVFC selection who could be an FCS All-American in 2024 if he stays healthy. Rusher Tye Niekamp was a freshman All-American with 74 tackles and 9 TFLs so ISU has the talent to cause havoc for the mediocre Iowa offense.
Why Over 41 Has Value on Saturday
Coach Ferentz had to make the tough choice to fire his son Bryan Ferentz as offensive coordinator after two abysmal seasons, but he was going to be facing torches and pitchforks from the Iowa City citizens if he didn’t make that call. Enter Tim Lester, a former Western Michigan and XFL quarterback who was also the head coach at WMU for five years and most recently served as a special offensive assistant for the Green Bay Packers.
Lester is going to want to throw the ball down the field and prove to the fans that this is not your old Iowa offense, and he’ll have a healthy Cade McNamara at QB to do so. McNamara played only five games last year after suffering a knee injury, but he’s going into his 5th year playing college football so he has experience.
The Iowa secondary takes a hit with Cooper DeJean going #40 in the NFL draft, but there biggest loss may be P Tory Taylor who had a 46.1 yard average and was selected in the 4th round by the Chicago Bears. One of the reasons Iowa’s defense kept teams out of the end zone was because they had such a long field to deal with because of Taylor’s leg.
Free Illinois State vs Iowa Total Betting Pick
Illinois State has some talent on offense that includes 1st team ALL MMVC RB Mason King, their top three receivers, and three starting lineman to go along with six transfers from the FBS. That being said, there are some issues at QB for the Redbirds, and this Iowa defense is not one to work your kinks out against.
It’s the popular play, but Iowa unders were getting hammered the entire second half of last season and they still hit.
Free Pick: Under 41
