When North Carolina visits Wake Forest as part of the NCAAF Week 11 slate, they may need to change lightbulbs on the scoreboard in the middle of the game as the total has reached 80 points at some sportsbooks. That is not the case in the Wisconsin at Iowa betting matchup, where 7 points could win this thing and the O/U is a mere 35.5 – the lowest of the day kind of by far.
Even though both the Badgers and Hawkeyes have a somewhat abnormal 4-losses apiece this season, this is still always a good rivalry game for the Heartland Trophy. Both teams have won two in a row and the point spread is just -1.5 favoring Iowa so this one looks like a chinstrap-rattler.
Badgers With a Nice Turnaround
Wisconsin started the year 2-3 and the administration had seen enough, firing Paul Chryst after 7 years on the job. The change seems to have worked, as UW has gone 3-1 under interim head coach Jim Leonhard – who could be getting an extension soon if the team continues to show improvement.
What’s been really impressive about Wisconsin’s 3-1 mark under Leonhard has been their ability to adjust. They had one of their better offensive performances of the year in a 35-24 win over Purdue when the Boilermakers were throwing for 320 yards and then relied largely on defense last week in a 23-10 win over Maryland.
Last week’s win over the Terrapins was trademark Wisconsin football. UW ran the ball 46 times for 278 yards, Had both Braelon Allen and Isaac Guerendo go over 100 yards on the ground, only completed 5 passes for 78 yards, and held Taulia Tagovailoa to 10/23 passing for 77 yards.
Iowa Finding Some Offense
The Hawkeyes were laughably bad on offense for the first half to 3/4 of the season as everybody remembers the season opener when they had more punts (10) than points in a 7-3 win over South Dakota State. The Hawkeyes had a couple 20+ point outbursts in back-to-back weeks in wins over Nevada (27-0) and Rutgers (27-10) but otherwise had been held to 14 points or less in 5 of their first 7 games this season.
Iowa has bounced back with a 33-13 win over Northwestern followed by a 24-3 victory over Purdue last week. Freshman RB Kaleb Johnson had a breakout game vs. the Boilermakers with 22 carries for 200 yards and QB Spencer Petras actually has 3 TD passes the last two games bringing his total on the year to…5.
While both the Hawkeyes and UW have played better offensively recently they also haven’t been matched up against defenses like they’ll see in the Badgers at Hawkeyes matchup. Both defenses are in the top 25 in points , total yards, and rushing yards allowed.
Free Wisconsin at Iowa Betting Pick
We’ve really got a couple teams that mirror each other in this matchup. Neither can really throw the ball consistently and rely on their running game and defense. The Badgers have the better ground attack – but Iowa has the better defense. When you factor in that the Hawkeyes are at home they look like the play here and unfortunately 75% of the public agrees which is never ideal.
Free Pick: Iowa -1.5
