It’s been an up and down year for the Cyclones (6-4), who had such promise when starting the season #7 in the country. ISU can essentially make their season with a win in the week 12 Iowa State at Oklahoma matchup, especially after falling 41-38 to Texas Tech last week as -13 point favorites.
The Sooners have dropped to #13 in the country after a 27-14 loss to Baylor last Saturday, but are still in line for a trip to the Big 12 championship game at 6-1 in the conference. The biggest thing OU needs to avoid in this matchup is looking ahead to Bedlam next week against #9 Oklahoma State, the winner of which would head to the conference championship game regardless of what happens this week.
Iowa State Plays OU Well
The thing about the Cyclones this year is that they look like they could win – or lose – every week. In just the past month alone ISU has dominated Texas 30-7 and handed Oklahoma State their only loss of the season 24-21. Those were both in Ames though, and in the Cyclones last two trips on the road they’ve lost 31-38 to West Virginia and had the 3-point loss at Texas Tech – both as at least TD favorites.
The good news heading into the week 12 Iowa State at Oklahoma matchup is that the Cyclones generally play the Sooners well as of late. They beat OU 37-30 in the regular season last year and hung tough before falling 27-21 in the Big 12 Championship game. ISU lost 42-41 in Norman in 2019 and beat the Sooners 38-31 in Ames in 2017 as +31 point underdogs.
A lot of the pieces that have matched up well with Oklahoma the last couple years are still in place for Iowa State. Senior QB Brock Purdy is hitting on 73.4% of his passes this season and is winding down his Iowa State career with two more games – he did throw two costly INTs vs. Texas Tech last week though. RB Breece Hall has topped 1,000 yards for the second straight year (1,172, 16TDs) and will likely find himself playing on Sundays next season. Big Tight End Charlie Kolar is a Norman, OK native who is also playing his last game in his hometown for the Cyclones.
OU Needs a Strong Finish
The Sooners likely cost themselves a shot at a berth in the CFP with last week’s loss to Baylor, and even at 9-1 they would still need help to get into the playoff for the fourth time in the last five seasons. A dominant win over a good Iowa State team is a start though.
The last thing Oklahoma wants to do is limp down the stretch, so they better hope that last week’s 27-14 loss at Baylor as -4 point favorites was a once off. Make no mistake the #11 Bears are a good team, but the Sooners managed just 78 yards rushing and 182 through the air while allowing BU to run for 296 yards.
Once again if that was a once off last Saturday, that’s fine. The Sooners still have the #8 scoring team in the country (40.0 ppg), but really need a bounce back game from QB Caleb Williams who was 10/19 for 146 yards and 2 INT against Baylor. Iowa State’s defense is 2nd in the Big 12 in rushing, passing, and total yards allowed.
Week 12 Iowa State at Oklahoma Pick
Oddsmakers are expecting a battle with the Sooners just -3 point home favorites. 65% of the public likes OU at that number, yet it has dropped from a -5 open. ISU has the experience, and just may catch a Sooners team that could be in disarray at the QB spot and could also be looking ahead to Oklahoma State next week.
Iowa State 37 – Oklahoma 34
Free Pick: Iowa State +3
