Oddsmakers are saying the Ducks have their work cut out for them heading into the week 8 Oregon at UCLA matchup. Oregon (5-1) is ranked #10 in the country but are slight +1 underdogs heading to face the Bruins (5-2). It’s a Chip Kelly revenge game as he faces the Ducks, who he was head coach of from 2009-2012.
Oregon won this matchup 38-35 in Eugene last season but that was a closer game than expected considering the Ducks were-18.5 favorites. Oregon has also gone 5-2 ATS their last 7 in Pasadena.
Oregon Teetering Last Couple Weeks
The Ducks looked like a CFP possibility the way they stormed out of the gate 4-0 which included a 35-28 win over Ohio State in Columbus. The win over the Buckeyes was impressive, but Oregon was also a 17+ point or better favorite in their three other wins over Fresno State, Stony Brook, and Arizona.
Once the competition has amped up the last couple weeks the Ducks don’t look as dominant anymore. They suffered their first loss of the season 31-24 in OT at Stanford and were a little shaky last week even after a bye in holding on to a 24-17 home win over Cal.
Some fans are clamoring for a QB change as Anthony Brown has just 1 TD and 1 INT over the last two weeks. Fans booed Brown at times even at home last week, but the super Senior should be able to have a huge day against a Bruins secondary giving up a Pac-12 worst 290.1 ypg through the air. UCLA does lead the conference in allowing just 91.1 ypg on the ground – but is that just because opponents can pass against them with so much ease?
UCLA Confident in Their QB Spot
The Bruins have no questions at QB as Dorian Thompson-Robinson has thrown for 13 TD to just 2 INT this season. He’s got 9 TD to just 1 INT over the last five games even though strangely enough Kelly isn’t throwing the ball a ton.
It’s been the Bruins run offense that has looked impressive coming into the Week 8 Oregon at UCLA matchup. The Bruins are behind just Oregon State in the Pac 12 with 219.9 ypg which is in the top 20 in the country. Zach Charbonnet has done a majority of that damage with 697 yards and 7 TD but Brittain Brown has tacked on 468 and 4 scores. Oregon ranks 6th in the Pac-12 vs. the run.
These two teams look very evenly matched again this season as Oregon was able to get a 38-35 win at home last season. It should be noted there were no fans in Autzen Stadium for that game due to COVID protocols, but UCLA running for 267 yards in that game is concerning. The Ducks managed just 88 yards rushing on 34 carries and won’t have the services of Tyler Shough (334 yards, 3 TD) as the QB transferred to Texas Tech.
Week 8 Oregon at Texas Tech Pick
This is a tough game to call and oddsmakers agree with the 1-point spread. A slight 57% of the betting public do favor UCLA, and the fact they are at home and have shown more offensive consistency lately does give them the edge.
UCLA 34 – Oregon 28
Free Pick: UCLA -1
