Green Bay (9-8) played good down the stretch to get into the playoffs as the #7 seed, but in the Wild Card Packers at Cowboys matchup they’ll have to do something no team has done this season – beat Dallas (12-5) at home.
The Cowboys used their big edge at home (8-0) to win the NFC East and give fans hope that this is their year for a deep playoff run. Those expectations could have Dallas playing a bit tight though, whereas Green Bay doesn’t have a ton to lose with one of the NFL’s youngest rosters and as a +7 point road underdog on Sunday night.
Why Green Bay Has Value at +7
The Packers were 6-2 over their last 8 games of the season, that’s impressive in its own rights but also when you consider that three of those wins came on the road and their other away tilt over that span was a 24-22 last second loss to the Giants that Green Bay probably should have won. The Packers were just 4-5 on the road this season, but played much better away from Lambeau in the second half.
QB Jordan Love was the key component in the Packers turning their season around and getting into the postseason. The first-year starter threw 18TDs to just 1 INT over the past eight games and has 9/0 in his last four. Green Bay also looks like a much better offense with RB Aaron Jones back as he has ran for 110+ yards in three straight games.
Green Bay’s defense was an underrated part of their success this season, but their strengths matchup well with what Dallas’ offense likes to do. The Packers were 9th in the NFL vs. the pass (206.8) and did a great job of keeping opponents out of the end zone allowing just 20.6 ppg which was 10th fewest in the NFL.
Why Dallas Has Value at -7
Mike McCarthy has a reputation for making some questionable calls in the postseason – especially during his time with these Packers – but the Cowboys season has ended in each of the last two years at the hands of the 49ers, one of the best teams in football over that span. That doesn’t mean Dallas won’t trip up if they meet San Francisco in these playoffs, but it also means they can easily dominate Green Bay on Sunday.
It’s true Love has been great the past 8 games, but this is also his first postseason start in a very hostile environment. C.J. Stroud was great for the Texans on Saturday night – but he was also playing at home. Love’s job gets extremely tough with Cowboys edge rusher Micah Parsons (14 sacks), and while missing RB A.J. Dillon (finger) in the backfield – and with his WR core battling various injuries.
Dak Prescott is making his 7th postseason start on Sunday – but he’s also starting to get the narrative that he melts this time of year with a 2-4 record. Prescott did throw for 305 yards and 4 TDs in a 2021 wild card win over Tampa Bay and that was on the road, so he does have the potential to go off here.
Free Wild Card Packers at Cowboys Betting Pick
It just seems like these two teams play each other close when they get together and Green Bay has won 9 of the last 10 head to head meetings making the +7 points look like the way to go. The Packers also had a guy named Aaron Rodgers at QB in most of those matchups and although Love looks like he could be special – he isn’t there yet. Dallas is still a risky play though, so betting on this game being a high scoring affair seems to be the way to go.
Free Pick: Over 50
