Green Bay is 8-2 heading into the week 11 Packers at Vikings matchup, but Minnesota (4-5) still looks like a popular play on Sunday. The line opened with GB -2.5 favorites (which still seemed low) but has been bet down to the Packers -1. 67% of the public is also on Green Bay so this game is all over the place.
This is the first meeting of the season between these two NFC North rivals, and they split with each team winning on the other’s home field last season. Despite Green Bay’s recent success overall, the Vikings have still won 6 of the last 10 in this series, although the ATS split is 5-5 over that span.
No Jones for Green Bay
The Packers do take a bit of a hit on Sunday with Aaron Jones out with what looked like a severe injury in last week’s 17-0 win over Seattle. Green Bay gets a break with Jones only expected to miss 2-4 weeks, and it also gives RB A.J. Dillon a chance to get a bulk of the carries, and he’s been running the ball well with 45+ yards in four of the last five even while sharing the workload.
Of course Green Bay still has a pretty potent passing attack with Aaron Rodgers returning last week from a COVID absence to complete 23/37 passes for 292 yards and an INT. That was also after missing 10 days of practice and only being cleared on Saturday. Rodgers threw for 364 yards and 4 TDs in last year’s visit to the Twin Cities (43-34 GB win) but it should be noted that was also without fans in attendance.
For all the potential damage Rodgers, Davante Adams (65 rec, 864 yards) could do in the week 11 Packers at Vikings matchup, it’s their defense that has been the biggest surprise as of late. It looked like it was going to be another shaky year on that side of the ball in a 38-3 loss to the Saints to open the season, but the Packers have held 6 of their last 9 opponents to 17 points or less, including handing Seattle their first shutout in the Russell Wilson era last week.
Vikings Ready for the Rivalry Win
The thing about Minnesota is that they’re much better than their 4-5 record would indicate, as all five of those defeats have been by one score. Then again maybe that’s a sign of this team lacking killer instinct?
The Vikings showed the ability to close out games last week in a hard fought 27-20 win over the Chargers as +3 point underdogs. It was an impressive win considering Minnesota was playing on the West Coast in their second straight road game after a 34-31 loss in Baltimore the previous Sunday. Kirk Cousins threw for 294 yards and 2 TD, Justin Jefferson had 143 yards receiving, and Dalvin Cook contributed 94 on the ground – pretty much the perfect formula for a Minnesota win.
The Minnesota defense also held Justin Herbert to under 200 yards passing, and the secondary gets even better this week with the return of Harrison Smith (COVID protocols) and Patrick Peterson (hamstring). The big problem may be containing Dillon though, as Minnesota ranks just 28th in the league vs. the run.
Week 11 Packers at Vikings Pick
Everybody likes Minnesota here but how do you go against Green Bay giving just 1 point? Bettors doubted Rodgers when he faced an unbeaten Arizona team in week 8 even as the Packers were missing 2/3 of their receiving corps.
Green Bay 27 – Minnesota 21
Free Pick: Green Bay -1
