The Eagles at Browns pick for the NFL’s week 11 slate is looking like another ‘weather day’ in Cleveland, with the forecast calling for 40 degree temps and rain. Browns ownership may be asking taxpayers for a dome soon, as this will be the third straight game played in the Forest City where Mother Nature has interjected.
The last two weather games for the Browns have been a 16-6 loss to the Raiders on November 1st and then a 10-7 win over the Texans last week following a bye. Those results alone would give a lean towards the under 45.5 in this betting total, but that number might have even looked good in normal weather conditions with Philadelphia’s struggling offense and the Browns run-heavy approach. Cleveland is also a -2.5 favorite in this matchup.
Tough Spot to Get Right for the Eagles
Philadelphia is easily the most maligned 1st place team in the NFL, but nobody else atop their division is 3-5-1 either. You’d never know from Philadelphia sports talk radio, but the Eagles have actually won two of their last three. Those were all against equally horrid NFC East foes though, and Philly comes into Cleveland off a 27-17 loss at the Giants.
Carson Wentz has bore a brunt of the criticism, and with good reason as he leads the NFL in INTs (12) and has another 4 fumbles lost. Wentz’ completion percentage is below 60%, and he was just 21/37 for 208 yards in a crucial game at New York last week. Throw in the rain that is expected in Cleveland on Sunday and it’s easy to see the Eagles’ passing game continue to struggle.
Philadelphia almost got a boost with TE Zach Ertz returning to practice during the week, but Doug Pederson says he probably needs “a little more time” to return to game action from an ankle injury – especially with slippery field conditions. About the only positive thing going for Philadelphia is Browns’ pass rusher Myles Garrett (9.5 sacks, 4 FF) missing the game because of COVID contact. The Eagles have given up the most sacks in the league, and it would’ve been a big day for Garrett.
Browns Ready to Churn Out a Win?
At this point the Browns probably welcome any inclement weather, as it allows them to grind things out with the #3 rushing offense in the league. Cleveland lost 16-6 to the Raiders on a cold and windy day on November 1st, but they were also without 1/2 of their dynamic running combo Nick Chubb that game. Chubb returned last week, and along with Kareem Hunt the Browns churned out 190 yards rushing to lead the win over the Texans.
Bad weather gives Cleveland an advantage on offense, but as shown last week it also puts opponents against the wall. The dynamic Houston offense had just 243 total yards last week, and even the Raiders were grounded to just 100 yards passing three weeks ago. The Raiders compiled 209 yards rushing, which helped them get the win.
Free Eagles at Browns Pick
Cleveland has a chance to make the Eagles very one-dimensional on Sunday if they can stop the run. That one-dimension, the passing game, has struggled as well. Only 56% of the public like the Browns, and while anything can happen in the rain games that usually doesn’t mean scoring.
Eagles 13 – Browns 19
Free Pick: Under 45.5
