San Francisco is getting healthier heading into the Bills vs 49ers pick, but they still lose a home game after new COVID restrictions in Santa Clara will force this contest to be played in Glenview, Arizona. One advantage for the Bills is that they just made this trek in week 10, losing 32-30 to the Cardinals as +3 point underdogs.
The 49ers are a slight -1 point favorite on Monday night after opening at +2.5. San Francisco got a 23-20 win on the road against a good Rams team last week, and have the defense to keep this meeting close until the end. 53% of the public still like the Bills though.
Buffalo On a Nice Run
The Bills’ last trip to Glenview is the only time they’ve lost since October 19th, being victorious in four of five since a 26-17 defeat to the Chiefs. Buffalo is coming off a 27-17 win at home over the Chargers last week, holding LAC to 76 yards on the ground but allowing 300+ through the air to Justin Herbert.
Buffalo had some defensive issues the last time they went on the road, allowing 217 yards rushing to Arizona and another 236 through the air. The Bills’ offense was a bit lethargic too, gaining only 73 yards on the ground. Will Buffalo come out of the gate in a similar manner on Monday with the cross-country travel? San Francisco’s defense can definitely make that possible, as they rank 5th in the NFL in yards allowed.
Josh Allen has a challenge in the Bills vs 49ers pick. The Buffalo QB completed 75% of his passes lasts week, but has also thrown 3 INT in the last two games. The 49ers have the #4 passing defense in the league, and held the Rams to just 182 passing yards last week while intercepting Jared Goff twice.
49ers Offense Set to Show Improvement?
Nick Mullens will make his 5th straight start for the 49ers, and should get another weapon back with Brandon Aiyuk finishing out his COVID quarantine. San Francisco’s offense looked better last week with the returns of Raheem Mostert (16 carries, 43 yards 1TD) and Deebo Samuel (11 catches, 133 yards), which should only improve with Aiyuk back (35 catches, 446 yards, 3TD).
The big problem with the 49ers is that their 23 points last week vs. the Rams was the most in the last three games following losses to New Orleans (27-13) and Green Bay (34-17). Buffalo has allowed 30+ in two of the last three, but Monday’s game still seems like it will be on the lower scoring side of things (O/U 47.5).
49ers defensive coordinator Robert Saleh has done a great job of plugging players into his scheme as San Francisco has the most player games missed on defense in the entire league. The Niners are still 4th best vs. the run and 10th against the pass, giving them an edge on Monday.
Free Bills vs 49ers Pick
There’s a lot of unknowns with this neutral site game, so betting on the side essentially becomes a toss-up. The line is moving in the 49ers direction and it wouldn’t be a shock to see them get the win, but 8-3 Buffalo getting a point or two is tempting as well.
Instead, this one should stay on the lower scoring side of things. The 49ers offense has playmakers, but has struggled to put up points. San Francisco’s defense is lightning fast and matches up well with Buffalo as well.
49ers 20 – Bills 17
Free Pick: Under 47.5
