The Dawg Pound is going to be rocking in the week 15 Bears at Browns matchup as Cleveland (8-5) needs to win to stay in the wild card hunt with a slew of 7-6 teams on their heels. The Browns have burned through QBs at an impressive rate in 2023, but may have found their guy from here on out after calling Joe Flacco off the couch for his third straight start.
The Bears hope they have found their QB as Justin Fields returns to the team of the crime of his first NFL start. That day wasn’t pretty for Fields as Chicago generated just 47 total yards of offense in a 26-6 loss back in September of 2021. A lot has changed since then, but the Browns are still -2.5 favorites for the rematch.
Why the Bears Have Value at +2.5
You wouldn’t know it listening to sports radio in the Windy City, but Fields has shown some real progression this season. He had back to back 4TD pass games against the Broncos and Commanders, and has reeled in his turnovers by not throwing an INT in his return from the injured list in week 11.
Fields has a tough test on Sunday against a Browns defense that ranks #1 in the NFL in total yards allowed (263.0) and vs. the pass (159.7). Cleveland is also a bit banged up on that side of the ball though in both the secondary as well as with pass rushing savant Myles Garrett basically playing with one arm due to a bad shoulder.
Cleveland’s defense has been impressive, but the Bears have really dialed it up in that department since trading with Washington for Montez Sweat and with head coach Matt Eberflus taking over play calling duties. Chicago locked in to shut out Detroit in the 2nd half of last week’s 28-13 win and have now held opponents to 13 points or less in three of the last four.
Why the Browns Have Value at -2.5
Fields is a dynamic play maker, but the weather in Cleveland on Sunday is calling for a 99% chance of rain which could turn the field into a mud slick limiting Fields’ ability to tuck and run. On top of that, Fields may be seeing ghosts as he flashes back to his first NFL start vs. the Browns where Cleveland had 9 sacks and held the Bears to under 50 yards of total offense.
This game is an upset special for many experts across the NFL landscape, but that’s kind of how blue collar Cleveland fans like it. The Browns have gone 8-5 this year even as Deshaun Watson, P.J. Walker, Dorian Thompson-Robinson, and now Flacco have all gotten starts at QB.
What Flacco may have lost physically at 38 years old, he’s gained an edge mentally as evidenced by 5 TDs to 2 INTs since joining the Browns a couple weeks ago. Flacco does probably give Cleveland the best chance to win of any healthy QB on their roster – which could be a good or a bad thing.
Free Week 15 Bears at Browns Betting Pick
The rain in this game throws a lot of key factors into the abyss? Is Garrett going to get a better or worse pass rush in the mud? Will Fields break some big runs with Cleveland defenders slipping and sliding? If Cleveland could rely on Nick Chubb for about 30 carries here they’d be the play, but he’s sidelined for the season with a knee injury so you have to take the points.
Free Pick: Bears +2.5
