The NFL week 4 Sunday slate caps off with Kansas City visiting Tampa Bay with the Buccaneers as -1.5 home favorites. The Chiefs fell into a trap game last week falling 20-17 to the Colts after Indianapolis got stomped 24-0 the previous week against Jacksonville, and they might be in trouble again against a really good Bucs defense (9.0 ppg allowed this season).
Patrick Mahomes and Tom Brady are obviously going to be the big targets for week 4 Sunday night prop bets but there’s a lot of value to be had all over for both of these star studded teams. Here are some of the best plays of the night:
Leonard Fournette 95.5 Rush/Receiving Yards
Off the top of your head 95.5 combined rushing and receiving yards seems like a lot for Leonard Fournette considering he has put up 74 and 70 combined yards the last two weeks. Fournette did have that 127 yard outing against Dallas to start the season though and the Chiefs are allowing 125.3 rush/receiving yards to RBs.
Kansas City played Arizona and the Chargers to start the season, two teams that really don’t have a bellcow back. LA’s Austin Ekeler had 9 grabs for 55 yards in week two to go along with 39 yards rushing which still fell short of the week 4 prop bets number of 95.5. Jonathan Taylor had 71 yards rushing to go along with 20 yards receiving last week vs. KC. If Taylor can’t break 100 yards combined vs. KC, have to take the under on Fournette 95.5 rush/pass yards.
Clyde Edwards-Helaire 8.5 Rush Attempts
The number for Clyde Edwards-Helaire’s rushing attempts is right what he’s usually had this season, 7 vs. Arizona, 8 vs. the Cardinals, and 7 last week vs. the Colts. The lean here might be towards the ‘over’ because RBS run an average of 18.7 times/game against Tampa Bay. Aaron Jones and A.J. Dillon both had 12 carries vs. the Bucs last week and Mark Ingram got 10 carries the week prior for the Saints with Alvin Kamara out. Tampa Bay has the #2 rush defense in the NFL, but with Ronald Jones still out against his former team take CEH for over 8.5 rush attempts.
Patrick Mahomes 263.5 Pass Yards
Patrick Mahomes like most of the Chiefs offense looked human last week against the Colts. He had 262 pass yards coming off 235 against the Chargers the week prior so the numbers aren’t quite there on a week in and week out basis for the former MVP. With the Bucs only allowing 229.7 pass yards/game to QBs it sounds crazy but take Mahomes under 263.5 yards.
Tom Brady 25.5 Completions
25.5 completions sounds insanely high for Tom Brady in week 4 Sunday night prop bets. He had 31 completions last week against Green Bay but just 18 the first two weeks in wins over Dallas and New Orleans. Matt Ryan had 27 completions last week vs. Kansas City and Justin Herbert 33 in week two which has pushed the Chiefs number to 28 completions allowed per game, 30th in the NFL. Brady gets a bunch here so take the over 25.5.
Mike Evans 69.5 Reception Yards
Mike Evans is rested after serving a suspension last week and 69.5 yards definitely seems doable. Indy’s Michael Pittman went for 72 against the Chiefs last Sunday and Evans has had a slow start with just 8 total catches in two games yet he’s still averaging 65 yards/game. He’ll be back in a big way here so take over 69.5 reception yards.
