Gardner Minshew had some bright spots in his time in Jacksonville, but now he seeks revenge in the week 6 Colts at Jaguars betting matchup. Minshew takes over for the injured Anthony Richardson and will try to give Indianapolis sole possession of 1st place in the AFC South with a win at his old stomping grounds on Sunday.
The Jags’ are back home and are -3.5 favorites, but they may also come out flat after playing in London the last two weeks. Jacksonville picked up two victories across the pond, but we’ll have to wait and see at what cost. 59% of the public actually likes the Colts and the points in this spot – betting on the Jacksonville jet lag.
Why the Colts Have Value at +3.5
Indianapolis used the #4 pick on Richardson and he’s obviously the future of the franchise at the QB position, but right now the team may be better set up to win with Minshew under center. Minshew came in the game in relief of Richardson (shoulder) last week and hit on 11 of 14 passes to help the Colts pick up a 23-16 victory over Tennessee as +2.5 home underdogs.
Minshew is an incredibly accurate passer that is completing nearly 70% (68.7) of his passes on the year. He not only has the revenge factor after starting 20 games for Jacksonville in 2019 and 2020 before the Trevor Lawrence era began in Duval County, but this is also the second game back for Jonathan Taylor who came off the PUP list to carry the ball 6 times for 18 yards.
Taylor,’s return (the former leading rusher in the NFL) lit a fire under Zack Moss who had 165 yards and 2 TDs vs Tennessee. The ground game could be another big asset in the week 6 Colts at Jaguars matchup if Jacksonville shows signs of fatigue from two weeks in the UK.
Why the Jaguars Have Value at -3.5
Jacksonville does face a mental test after being 4,200+ miles away from home for the past two weeks, but it’s another location that gives the Jaguars value on Sunday and that’s Duval County. The Jaguars already have a 31-21 win over the Colts this year in the season opener, and prior to that the home team had won 11 straight games in the head to head series.
The Jaguars have some momentum built back up after their trip to London, beating Atlanta (23-7) and Buffalo (25-20) to climb back into 1st place in the division.
The Colts showed promise on the ground last week against Tennessee, but the Jaguars have the #5 run defense in the NFL allowing just 81.6 ypg. Not only that, for all the prowess that Lawrence and the Jacksonville passing offense are praised for, they have a very good rushing attack as well as Travis Etienne blew up for 136 yards and 2 TDs vs Buffalo.
Free Week 6 Colts at Jaguars Betting Pick
As always, the hook at +/- 3.5 looms large in this game. The home team usually wins this matchup, but the Jaguars are also adjusting to being back on American soil. Minshew is an accurate passer with revenge on his mind and this contest just feels like it is coming down to a last second field goal.
Free Pick: Colts +3.5
