NFL Week 6 Thursday Night Football Free O/U Pick
Does a Short Week Favor a High Scoring Affair?
The NFL week 6 TNF O/U free pick sees the Philadelphia Eagles traveling to New York to take on the division rival Giants. The Eagles are slight -2.5 road favorites and about 40% of the public is liking the home ‘dogs. The total of 44 is what’s really intriguing however. That number could soar over if Carson Wentz finally starts feeling comfortable for the Eagles and Eli Manning and O’Dell Beckham put their differences aside and start connecting. Then again, a 10-7 game isn’t out of the realm either on the short week.
Philadelphia Looking to Find Their Offense
The Eagles are still trying to find their wings a bit now that Carson Wentz is back under center full-time. Last year’s MVP candidate will make his 4th start of the season tonight and there are signs that the Wentz of old could be coming back. The QB hasn’t been bad (5TD / 1INT) but Philadelphia has failed to score more than 23 points in any of his three starts. Teams have run on the Giants so far this season (27th in ypg/a) but the Eagles will have to turn to a RB-by-committee with Jay Ajayi heading to injured reserve. Philadelphia ran for nearly 200 yards in a 27-24 win over New York last year in week 3 but threw for over 420+ in a 34-29 win in Week 15. Do they show that diversity – and scoring – again in the NFL week 6 TNF o/u free pick? Zach Ertz has been one of the best TE’s in football this season and Wendell Smallwood showed some diversity out of the backfield last week so Philly might not be in as much trouble as people think.
The Eagles should be able to get their points tonight but how does their defense respond on the short week? Philadelphia has dropped two in a row and their D is giving up 24.5 ppg in those losses. The Vikings ran for just 77 yards on 23 carries last week and the Eagles held them to under 300 yards passing so it wasn’t a completely horrible outing. The Giants have a lot of weapons though and Philadelphia could be a bit beat up after facing a physical Minnesota team and turning around on a short week.
So many things are against the #Eagles tonight. On the road, short week, potentially pouring rain. Lane Johnson injury. Divisional game. Road defense.
The thing they have going for them? The Giants are terrible and have lost 17 of their last 21 games.
— Eliot Shorr-Parks (@EliotShorrParks) October 11, 2018
New York Can Quiet a Lot of Critics With a Strong Offensive Showing
It’s never a good thing when Lil Wayne starts interjecting in your offensive game plan but that’s exactly where the Giants find themselves heading into the The NFL week 6 TNF O/U free pick. Weezy’s not wrong that New York is struggling though. The Giants have scored 18 points or less in 3 out of 5 games this year and ranked 25th in the NFL in total yards per game. Top overall pick Saquon Barkley has shown flashes, but he also has three games with less than 50 yards rushing for New York’s 28th ranked ground attack. The weird thing is – for as much negative publicity O’Dell Beckham, Jr. has received he’s still having a pretty solid year with 39 catches for 462 yards including 8/131 last week vs. Carolina. The 1 TD reception is likely the culprit but the enigmatic WR got on the board last week against the Panthers and look for another tonight. Eli Manning threw for 366 and 434 yards last year vs. Philadelphia with 6 TD so he knows how to exploit the Eagles offense as well.
The Giants defense could be the unit facing scrutiny tonight up against Philly on a short week. New York started off the year well holding three straight opponents to 22 points or less but have given up 33 in both of the last two games. The Giants struggle in the rushing defense which could give the Eagles some versatility on offense. The New York pass defense could force tonight’s game towards the ‘under’ side however as they rank 8th in the NFL allowing under 230 ypg. A light rain could be on their side too – although that will slow down both offenses.
NFL Week 6 TNF O/U Free Pick Betting
Tonight’s teams were involved in two high scoring games a year ago and there’s nothing to expect that won’t continue again this evening. The ‘over’ has hit in 5 straight head-to-head meetings and each of the last 6 games in New York. The ‘over’ has also gone 3-1 on TNF games since week 1 as defenses struggle with the short turnaround. Combined with each team being within a game of each other in the NFC East both squads are going to have to pull out all the stops tonight.
TNF Free Pick: Eagles / Giants *Over* 44
