The 3-3 Denver Broncos travel to New Orleans to face the 2-4 Saints in a Thursday Night Football matchup at Caesars Superdome. This game kicks off Week 7 of the NFL season. Denver had a three-game winning streak end last week, while the Saints are looking to snap a four-game losing streak.
Both teams are dealing with injuries, but the Saints are slight favorites at home. Let’s break down the key factors and give our prediction for the game.
Denver Defense Keeps Broncos Competitive
The Broncos come into this matchup after having their win streak snapped in Week 6. They’ve leaned heavily on their defense, which ranks among the best in several categories. Denver is allowing the fourth-lowest EPA per play and ranks fourth in defensive DVOA. They’ve also allowed the third-fewest yards per play this season.
Quarterback Bo Nix has been managing the offense efficiently, with only one turnover during Denver’s 3-1 stretch. The Broncos haven’t been putting up big numbers offensively, but they’ve protected the football and relied on their defense to keep games close. Courtland Sutton leads the team in targets with 47 but has only totaled 228 yards so far.
Denver will look to continue its defensive success against a Saints team missing key players. The Broncos’ ability to pressure the quarterback, with 22 sacks this season, will be critical in this game.
Saints Face Tough Challenges on Offense
The Saints are expected to start rookie quarterback Spencer Rattler again after he struggled in his debut last week. Rattler completed just 55% of his passes and threw two interceptions. With several injuries to the offense, including the likely absence of Chris Olave, the Saints are facing a tough challenge on the short week.
Alvin Kamara will be a key player for New Orleans, as he has been the motor of the offense, averaging 70 rushing yards per game and adding 40 receiving yards. The Broncos’ defense has been solid against the run, but Kamara will still be heavily relied upon.
The Saints’ defense has been vulnerable in recent weeks, allowing the second-most yards per play in their four-game losing streak. However, they have been strong in the red zone, allowing opponents to score just 38% of the time, ranking second only to Denver.
Prediction: Broncos Win Low-Scoring Battle
The Broncos’ defense will likely have the edge in this matchup, especially with the Saints missing key offensive players. New Orleans’ struggles with turnovers, combined with Denver’s ability to protect the ball, make this a tough spot for the Saints.
We expect Denver to cover the spread as a +1 underdog and keep this game low-scoring. Take the Broncos to win outright and bet the under 37.5 points.
