Matchup History
Everyone knows this matchup by now, as the Patriots and Giants have clashed twice in the biggest possible game – the Super Bowl – with New York pulling out two close wins. As classic as those battles are, those are just two of 11 meetings in history between the two sides. They don’t face each other often and the last time they went head to head was in the 2012 Super Bowl. That title win gave the Giants a slight 6-5 series edge, but the history of this matchup likely plays very little into what we see on Sunday. That being said, while the Giants are 2-0 in the biggest game these two could ever play, the Pats have a 5-4 regular season edge.
Reminder for today’s Patriots-Giants’ game: Since start of 2008 calendar year, Giants are ONLY NFL team the Patriots have NOT beaten.
— Adam Schefter (@AdamSchefter) November 15, 2015
New England has been on a total tear throughout 2015. At 8-0, they’ve been an offensive machine with Tom Brady firing in 22 touchdowns and LeGarrette Blount and now injured running back Dion Lewis putting together a solid rushing attack. The Patriots seem quite formidable on offense, but Lewis is now done for the season and New England does not have an elite defense to fall back on like they did a year ago. There could be growing pressure on the offense to perform, and how they adjust without Lewis (who was having a heck of a season) will be key for the rest of the year. Luckily this isn’t a bad matchup for the Pats, even with it being on the road, as New York hasn’t had the strongest of defenses in 2015.
Giants Preview (+7.5)
We know from two weeks ago that Eli Manning can put up some big numbers if a game calls for a shootout, but the rest of the season has shown his and New York’s general inconsistency and flaws. Jason Pierre-Paul has returned from his horrific summer hand injury, but he’s not enough to thwart possibly the best offense in all of the NFL. New York’s main edge is they’re at home and Odell Beckham Jr. doesn’t have to go up against Darrelle Revis like he would have had to a year ago. This has the makings of a shootout, but chances are if the Giants want to win, they’ll try to get their running game going early and try to control the tempo. That’s how they defeated the Patriots twice in the Super Bowl, after all.
On the NFL Moneyline odds at Bovada the NY Patriotss are at -320 and with the point spread the Giants are getting +7.5.
The Pick
New England has actually done a solid job ATS lately (5-1-1 in their last seven games), but the underdog has ruled the spread in this matchup over the last four contests. New York is also just 2-7 ATS against a winning team.
But none of that tell us the obvious: these teams don’t know each other like they did three years ago and right now the Patriots are the far better team. New York, at least at first glance, doesn’t have the defense needed to contain Tom Brady, Rob Gronkowski and Julian Edelman. They probably can’t even shut down Blount and the Pats’ power run game. New England is slightly vulnerable on the road here, but they’re the favorite for a reason: they’re tough to stop and they have every bit of what is needed to possibly run the table.
Who knows if the Pats go 16-0, but I do expect them to beat the Giants. Blowing them out or even winning handsomely is tough to see, though, so I’ll take the Giants to beat the spread.
