The Dallas Stars needed seven games to eliminate the Seattle Kraken in the second round, while the Vegas Golden Knights needed six to dispose of the high-scoring Edmonton Oilers. The Stars and Golden Knights meet in game one of the Western Conference finals on Friday night in Vegas, where the underdog may have the upper hand.
While both teams fought at the top of their divisions throughout the season, neither was the favorite to emerge from the West when the playoffs began. We’ll review the odds, stats, and trends in our Stars vs Golden Knights betting preview and predict who will move one win closer to playing for Lord Stanley’s Cup. You can catch game one from the T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas on ESPN, ESPN+, CBC, Sportsnet, and TVAS at 8:30 pm ET.
Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights Odds
Before we analyze stats or trends, we must review the odds and both teams betting records this season.
The Vegas Golden Knights are the home favorite, listed between -118 and -126. VGK (-1.5) has a 50-43 ats record.
The Dallas Stars are the underdog, listed between +105 and even odds. Dallas (+1.5) has a 50-45 ats record.
The total goals line is set at 5.5, with the over listed between -103 and -110 and the under between -110 and -117. The Stars have a 42-48-5 over/under record, while VGK has a 43-45-5 over/under record.
Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights Head-to-Head Information
The Dallas Stars swept the regular season series 3-0, going 2-0 on the road against Vegas. The underdog is 6-2 in the previous eight meetings.
The under is 3-0 this season, with five being the most total goals scored in any game. The under is 4-1-1 in the previous five games in Las Vegas, while the under is 12-3-2 in the last 17 head-to-head matchups overall.
Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights Stats
The five-on-five playoff stats of the Stars and Golden Knights are very evenly matched.
Dallas is averaging 3.62 goals per game while giving up 3.08. Conversely, VGK is averaging 3.73 goals per game while giving up 3.00.
However, the special teams’ stats favor the Stars. Dallas’ powerplay is converting at 31.7%, while the Stars’ penalty kill is operating at 83.3%. Vegas’ powerplay is converting at 17.5%, while the penalty kill is operating at 60.0% in the playoffs.
We must remember the Golden Knights just played six games against the Edmonton Oilers: the highest-scoring team with the most potent powerplay in the league.
As for starting goalies, we expect Jake Oettinger (37-11-11, 2.37 GAA, .919 SV%) to start for Dallas. Oettinger has an 8-5-0 record, a 2.75 GAA, and a .903 SV% in the payoffs.
Vegas has two options they could counter Oettinger with: either Adin Hill (16-7-1, 2.50 GAA, .915SV%), who has a 3-1-0 record, a 2.19 GAA, and a .934 SV% in the post-season, or Laurent Brossoit (7-0-3, 2.17 GAA, .927SV%), who has a 5-2-0 record, a 3.18 GAA, and a .894 SV%.
Dallas Stars vs Vegas Golden Knights Game One Betting Picks
The first of our picks is to take the Dallas Stars to pull off the road upset. Road teams have been very successful throughout the NHL playoffs and in game one of many series. Moreover, the Stars won all three matchups this season, and we favor them heavily in the goaltending matchup.
Since we’re taking the underdog to win, we’re also taking the Stars to cover the spread. After all, they’ll need to cover the spread to win game one.
Our final pick is following the head-to-head trends and taking the under.
