Rogers Place is going to be an absolute madhouse on Sunday night for the Stars at Oilers Game 6 betting matchup as Edmonton tries to punch their ticket to the Stanley Cup Finals for the first time in 18 years. The Oilers hold a 3-2 series lead after Friday night’s 3-2 win in Dallas.
The Stars are down, but they aren’t out as they’ve been stupendous on the road this postseason. The Oilers also look dialed in though, which is why they are a -140 favorite in this potential closeout game.
Why Dallas Has Value in Game 6
Putting the talent and trends statistics aside for a second, there is one big thing favoring the Stars on Sunday and that’s 81% of the betting public backing the Oilers and the moneyline only moving from Edmonton -135 to -140. It looks like the books are going to be cooked if the Oilers close this series out – and they rarely let that happen.
Of course besides betting numbers, there’s plenty of reasons to value the Stars at +116. First of all they’ve been one of the best road teams in NHL playoff history, going 6-2 away from the American Airlines Center this postseason. Dallas went 5-1 in Las Vegas and Colorado in the first two rounds – traditionally two of the hardest places for visitors to pick up the W the last few years.
The big key to the Stars’ road success in these playoffs has been goaltender Jake Oettinger. He allowed just 3 total goals in three games at the Avalanche and just 5 total goals in three games at the Golden Knights.
Why the Oilers Have Value in Game 6
Let’s be honest – it just might be the Oilers’ time. They’ve had one of the best offenses in recent NHL memory over the past few seasons but the most they’ve had to show for it was a sweep in the conference finals against the Avalanche in 2022. Edmonton has gotten over the hump of some recent playoff disappointments, and now seem ready for their first trip to the Stanley Cup Finals since 2006.
The big narrative heading into Game 6 is that the Stars have been a great road team this postseason – which they have. Dallas might be starting to lose some of that away momentum though, losing 5-2 in Edmonton in Game 4. Oettinger has been solid most of this postseason, but he’s allowed 7 goals on 58 shots in the two games at Rogers Place this series.
Edmonton goaltender Stuart Skinner is more than capable of leading his team to the Stanley Cup Finals as he’s shown most of this series. Skinner doesn’t get as much credit as your Igor Shesterkin’s or your Sergei Bobrovsky’s or even your Oettinger’s but he’s held the Stars to 2 goals or less in four of five games this series.
Free Stars at Oilers Game 6 Betting Pick
Since the Eastern Conference Finals wrapped up with Florida eliminating the Rangers in Game 6, we can kind of throw out the “NHL wants Game 7 ratings” narrative. Does that mean Edmonton gets the win on Sunday night to set up an Oilers vs Panthers Finals where both teams have roughly equal rest? The answer to that is no, as although Dallas looked bad on the road in Game 4, they have still been great away from their own ice this whole playoffs.
Free Pick: Stars +116
