Saturday July 18th UFC Fight Night 173 Prelim Betting Guide

Fight month continues from Abu Dhabi as the UFC fight night 173 prelim betting card gets underway Saturday at 5:00 PM EST on ESPN. There are 7 bouts scheduled for the prelim event with some value to be had:

Carlos Felipe (+150) vs Sergey Spivak (-185)
Heavyweight

Carlos Felipe (8-0) makes his octagon debut heading into UFC fight night 173 prelim betting. There’s a lot of unknowns about “BOI” as he squares off against Sergey Spivak (10-2) who has gone 1-2 since entering the UFC.

6 of Felipe’s 8 wins have come via the KO and this match to end early is -230. Spivak won a decision in February but also got knocked out by Walt Harris in his octagon debut last May. This looks like it’s going to the judges which means you go with Felipe even being the unknown.
Pick: Felipe +150

Arman Tsarukyan (-225) vs Davi Ramos (+175)
Lightweight

Davi Ramos (10-3) comes into UFC fight night 173 prelim betting as an underdog even though he is 4-1 over his last 5 fights. There seems to be value on “the Tasmanian Devil” who ended 3 of those bouts early but is coming off a DEC loss last September.

Arman Tsarukyan (14-2) is a risky bet on the -225 odds. He’s 1-1 since joining the UFC with both fights going to the judges. Ramos was on a roll until his last bout but he’s ready since this fight was originally scheduled for April.
Pick: Ramos +175

Malcolm Gordon (+120) vs Amir Albazi (-150)
Flyweight

Malcolm Gordon (12-3) makes his octagon debut in UFC fight night 173 betting. He’s taking on Amir Albazi (12-1) who is also looking forward to his first fight in the promotion. There isn’t a whole lot to go off of in this bout but the fight not to go the distance is -140 (YES +110).

Albazi is answering the bell on 10 days notice when Aleksander Doskalchuk dropped out for personal circumstances. Gordon has won four straight and 6 of his last 7 MMA fights have not only ended early – but in the 1st round. The underdog theme continues from “Fight Island”.
Pick: Gordon +120

Montel Jackson (-220) vs Brett Johns (+180)
Bantamweight

Montel Jackson (9-1) is riding a three fight win streak heading into the meeting with Brett Johns (16-2) who has lost 2 of his last 3. Johns is a bit underrated here after starting his UFC career 3-0. He’s lost two DEC’s since then but scored a submission win in January. Johns scored a Fight of the Night for that W.

This fight is -225 to go the distance as each are quality combatants. It’s really a coin flip because the quality of Johns’ opponents have been top notch win or lose. You don’t lay the -220 in a coin flip.
Pick: Johns +180

Joe Duffy (-340) vs Joel Alvarez (+260)
Lightweight

A lot of people are having a hard time justifying the -340 for Joe Duffy (16-4) on Saturday. “Irish” has lost 3 of his last 4 fights and hasn’t fought since March 2019. Make no mistake Joel Alvarez (16-2) hasn’t fought since June of 2019 but he did get the KO to push his UFC record to 1-1. Alvarez has 14 submission wins in his career even though fight to go the distance is -140. Total rounds is the only play here:
Pick: Fight does not go the distance +110

Grant Dawson (-230) vs Nad Narimari (+180)
Catchweight

Grant Dawson (15-1) looks like one of the few favorites worth laying the chalk on for Saturday night’s event. Dawson is 3-0 in the UFC having ended his last two early via the rear naked choke. Nad Narimari (12-3) started off his UFC career with two decision wins but hasn’t fought since March of 2019 in what was a 2nd round TKO (punches).

This fight has decision written all over it as it’s two quality fighters but neither with overwhelming ending potential. Throw in Dawson’s inability to make weight and the distance has to be the play:
Pick: Fight goes the distance YES -120

Roman Dolidze (-165) vs Khadis Ibragimov (+135)
Light Heavyweight

Can Roman Dolidze (6-0) or Khadis Ibragimov (8-2) make any movement in the stacked light heavyweight division? It’s the UFC debut for Dolidze while Ibragimov is already in trouble after starting 0-2 in the octagon.

It seems like Dolidze is evolving as a fighter after getting a submission win in his first three fights but riding three consecutive KOs coming into Saturday night. The -165 isn’t a horrible price to pay for this streaking fighter but there’s also value on this fight not making it to the 3rd.
Pick: No, fight does not complete 2 full rounds -120