The Padres and Rockies conclude their 4-game series at Petco in the August 11th MLB betting free pick. For Colorado, the end (of the season) can’t come soon enough as they have now dropped 3 straight to the Padres and 5 in a row overall. San Diego is now just 6GB from the wild card, but has six teams to jump for that spot. Oddsmakers are still calling Sunday’s game a close one though with SD listed at just -115 favorites (COL +100).
Colorado a Good Fade Here on Out?
The Rockies have slumped to last place in the NL West in an insurmountable 25 game deficit to the Dodgers. Colorado has a very talented offensive lineup, but has still gone just 8-26 over their last 34. Rockies bats have been held to 3 runs or less in 3 of the last 4 games. Nolan Arenado, Trevor Story, and Charlie Blackmon have all hit over .333 and have combined for 8 HR in the past 6 games but the Rockies are still just 1-5 over that span.
It looks like Colorado might struggle again at the plate in the August 11th MLB betting free pick as the O/U is set at just 8.5. That also seems low the way the Rockies pitchers have performed this series. The Colorado staff has allowed 24 runs to the Padres over the weekend thus far. Even so, the bullpen isn’t overly taxed coming into Sunday’s contest as starters have gone at least 5.0 IP in all three games thus far. New closer Scott Oberg allowed 4ER on Friday and the Padres scored a total of 5ER in Thursday’s win. German Marquez gets the starting nod in the series finale, having allowed 5ER his last start but just 4 total in three outings prior.
Padres Hitting Well As of Late
San Diego overall has just the 22nd ranked scoring offense in the majors but they’ve found a way to plate runs as of late. Victories over the Rockies so far this weekend have come 9-3 (+102), 7-1 (-148), and 8-5 (-222). The Padres were huge favorites on Saturday and Sunday but that line has come back down a bit for the August 11th MLB betting free pick at -115. Even so, San Diego has scored at least 7 runs in 5 of their last 6 and have scored 9+ in three of those. Fernando Tatis, Jr. is 4-13 on the weekend with a HR, 2B, and 3B which has picked up for Manny Machado going 1-11.
Padres starters have done a good job limiting the Rockies offense so far on the weekend. Colorado heads back home for Monday’s tilt after a 6-game road swing that they’ve gone 0-5 on so far. That should give an edge to SD starter Dinelson Lamet. The right-hander made his season debut on July 4th after Tommy John surgery and looks to be rounding into shape with a 7.0 IP, 2H, 12 SO performance vs. Seattle in his last outing.
Top Trends:
- Rockies are 7-19 last 26 road games
- Rockies are 2-5 in Marquez’s last 7 starts
- Padres are 4-1 last 5 overall
- Padres are 2-11 in Lamet’s last 13 starts
- Over is 7-1 last 8 H2H meetings
August 11th MLB Betting Free Pick
The value is definitely on San Diego in this one as Colorado has had a horrible road trip dropping all five games going away so far. Lamet had a great outing last time for San Diego, but he also threw a season high 104 pitches. Marquez has outings of 5ER and 11ER over his last 5 starts so both squads have potential for offense on Sunday. The O/U is on the low side as well.
Free Pick: Rockies / Padres *Over* 8.5
