O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 Betting Preview written by Betting Brain NASCAR Expert Cliff “Tire Wear” Johnson.
Texas Motor Speedway takes the stage for O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 betting where Denny Hamlin has great odds at +600 after winning this race a year ago. Kyle Busch is +500 after winning the Xfinity series race here Saturday (before being disqualified for failing post-race inspection) and the truck series Saturday night. Busch has won 3 of the last 7 of this race for the Cup series.
There’s also always value on Kevin Harvick (+275) as he has won three straight AAA Texas 500 races also held in Ft. Worth. Aric Almirola is at +1200 from the pole for Sunday afternoon’s race (3:00 PM ET, NBCS). Here are my top 5 plays:
Kevin Harvick +275
It’s hard not to back Kevin Harvick at Texas Motor Speedway as he has won 3 of the last 5 races at this track. Granted those were the AAA Texas 500 but Harvick still has value in O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 betting. Harvick finished 3rd in the all-star race Wednesday, his fifth straight race coming in the top 5 and 10th time overall this season. Harvick finished in 8th in this race last season but did post 12 of the fastest laps.
Pick: Harvick to win +275
Denny Hamlin +600
Denny Hamlin likes Texas Motor Speedway, winning the 2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 while leading 45 laps. Hamlin also won this race in 2010 and led 12 laps in 2018 before crashing out. Hamlin came in 5th at the all-star race on Wednesday, his 5th top 5 in the last 7 races.
Pick: Hamlin top 3 finish +180
Matt Kenseth +7700
In his last race at Texas Motor Speedway Matt Kenseth came all the way from 35th to finish 4th at the 2017 AAA Texas 500. He’ll have some similar work to do starting from 22nd for O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 betting but he started 21st and finished 2nd at the Brickyard three races ago. Kenseth has finished in the top 10 in 19 of his 30 career starts at Ft. Worth and has come in the top 5 in 14 of those events.
Pick: Kenseth top 5 finish +1000
Alex Bowman +3000
Alex Bowman will be starting 12th on Sunday looking to duplicate his top 5 finish in the last race at Texas Motor Speedway last November. Bowman led 11 laps in that race and made up for his 18th place finish at the 2019 O’Reilly Auto Parts 500. Bowman finished 8th in the all-star race Wednesday, his second top 10 in the last 4.
That being said, Bowman is matched up with Sunday’s pole sitter Aric Almirola who has finished in the top 8 in three straight in Ft. Worth. Almirola also had seven straight top 10’s including five in the top five prior to Wednesday’s disappointing All-Star Open. He’ll be up there again in O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 betting but Bowman is not such a sure thing. It’s worth the price:
Pick: Driver head to head Almirola -150 over Bowman
Martin Truex +800
Is this the spot where Martin Truex, Jr. gets right? He did finish 2nd in Kentucky tow races ago but has been in 10th or worse in 5 of the last 7. Truex has finished in 12th and 37th in the last two O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 events which makes him a good matchup to go against with Ryan Blaney.
Blaney overheated in last year’s O’Reilly Auto Parts 500 but was running great prior in leading 45 laps. That likely cost him what would have been a 5th straight top 10 finish in Ft. Worth. Blaney is starting 2nd on Sunday as well.
Pick: Driver head to head Blaney -115 over Truex, Jr.
