The Reds and Rockies have split their weekend series so far and there’s value on both teams in the July 28th MLB betting free pick. Cincinnati at -155 might seem like a high price but then again Colorado is winding down a 10 game road swing and host the Dodgers on Monday. Cincinnati could be a good bet, but they trot out a pitcher making his season debut. There’s question marks surrounding both squads in this one.
Rockies Inconsistent With Their Bats
The O/U for the July 28th MLB betting free pick is 10.5 which would indicate some runs are about to be put on the board on Sunday. One would think a majority of those scores would come from the Rockies who plated 20 runs on Thursday and Friday while not even playing at Coors Field. That includes a 12-2 victory over Cincinnati in the series opener Friday as Daniel Murphy hit a HR for the second straight game. On Saturday though, the Rockies offense was held to 1 run on 5 hits. What should bettors expect from Colorado in this one, especially as they wrap up a 10-game road stretch.
One of the reasons Colorado is such a big underdog on Sunday is because Peter Lambert and his 5.93 ERA gets the start. Those numbers are a bit misleading however as Lambert has posted a 7.61 ERA at Coors Field but a much more manageable 3.63 on the road. Lambert has held the Nationals, Dodgers, and Cubs to 7 ER combined in his last three road starts (17.1 IP). The right-hander hasn’t faced a single batter in Cincinnati’s lineup.
What Can Reds Expect From Wood in Season Debut
The fact that Cincinnati is such a significant favorite at -155 is a bit dumbfounding considering their starter is Alex Wood, making his season debut after spending time on the injured list with a lower back strain. Wood faced Colorado twice last season as a member of the Dodgers and it wasn’t pretty. The left-hander allowed 2 ER in just 0.2 IP in a relief appearance in September and allowed 6ER in 2.0 IP at Coors Field in early June. The Rockies hit .301 as a team vs. the Reds starter.
The Reds are still in a good spot for a W despite their pitching concerns as Colorado has dropped 7 of their last 10 games. The Reds took 2 of 3 in Milwaukee and have now been victorious in 4 of their last 7. No Cincinnati batters have faced Colorado’s Lambert, but both Eugenio Suarez (.333, 4HR) and Josh VanMeter (.500, 3HR) have hit the ball well over the past week.
Top Trends:
- Rockies are 2-5 last 7 Sunday games
- Rockies are 5-17 last 22 overall
- Rockies are 1-6 last 7 vs. LH starter
- Rockies are 0-6 in Lambert’s last 6 starts
- Reds are 2-6 last 8 home games
- Over is 7-1-1 last 9 H2H meetings in Cincinnati
MLB Betting Free Pick
The Reds are tough to gauge in this one as nobody knows what to expect from Wood. Lambert has been a much better pitcher on the road compared to at home. Even though the Rockies offense struggled on Saturday, they put up 20 runs total in the two games prior.
July 28th MLB Betting Free Pick: Colorado Rockies +137
