Even though both teams are hovering only around the .500 mark, the March 3rd Indiana at Maryland betting matchup still has a lot riding on it in terms of conference seeding. The Terrapins (15-14) are currently the second to last team which would mean they’d have to play in the first round of the Big Ten tournament instead of getting the bye.
The Hoosiers (15-13) aren’t exactly safe for a bye, as they are the tiebreaker ahead of Rutgers out of the bottom four. The Terrapins are a -8.5 point favorite in this spot which seems on the high side, but Indiana is also a pretty bad road team.
Why Indiana Has Value at +8.5
8.5 points seems like a lot in a meeting between two teams that look fairly evenly matched. The Hoosiers and Terrapins are two of the three worst offensive teams in the Big Ten while Maryland is under .500 at home in conference play while IU is sub .500 on the road.
Even though the Terps’ have the more stellar defense in this matchup, it was Indiana who flexed that muscle in a 65-53 win over Maryland on December 1st to easily cover the -2.5 point spread. The Terrapins shot just 20-56 from the field in that game and a measly 2-16 from three. Obviously those shooting numbers are going to improve back at home, but that dominance has to give Indiana some confidence.
Maryland had no answer for Kel’el Ware in the first meeting as he went for 18 points and 14 rebounds. They’re not the only team to struggle with the 7’footer though as he just dropped 27 points with 11 rebounds on Tuesday in a win over Wisconsin for his third double-double in the last four games. Shooting doesn’t always travel, but size does.
Why Maryland Has Value at -8.5
Sometimes when a line looks way too high and it’s best to take the points, it means a blowout could be coming. Although their 4-5 home conference record doesn’t look great, the Terrapins are 11-5 overall at the Xfinity Center this season.
Maryland did lose at home this week 68-61 to Northwestern, but it doesn’t seem likely that they’ll shoot 2-22 from three point range like they did in that game. That, and the 12% shooting from beyond the arc the first game against Indiana were two of the Terrapins worst marksmanship games of the season.
Even if Maryland does struggle again offensively, their defense is borderline elite. KenPom has the Terrapins as the #5 adjusted defensive efficiency team in the nation. Maryland held Rutgers to 46 points on the road last weekend.
Free March 3rd Indiana at Maryland Betting Pick
The fact that Maryland can go so cold offensively, especially from beyond the arc and even at home, makes the -8.5 points hard to lay here. They’ve gone to OT against Penn State and only beat Michigan by 7 at home to go along with blowout wins against Iowa and Nebraska. Take the points.
Free Pick: Indiana +8.5
