The Match 2: Champions for Charity is some unchartered waters for wagering as nobody really knows how well Tom Brady and Peyton Manning golf. The team of Tiger Woods/Manning are favorites over Phil Mickelson / Brady but that’s mostly because of Woods, who was winning the Masters last Spring. The Match 2 betting is going to be interesting.
The Teams
Oddsmakers have listed the duo of Woods and Manning as -185 favorites in The Match 2 betting. Brady and Mickelson pay out at +150 for the upset. Mickelson beat Woods at the original ‘The Match’ back in 2018 at Shadow Creek in Las Vegas although it did take 22 holes.
Woods has played 4 events on the 2020 PGA season, starting off with a win in Japan back at the end of October and finishing in the top 10 two other times. Obviously there has been a two month delay due to Covid, but Woods fought back ailments back in March, causing him to miss the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Mickelson has been more active in playing 9 events, but he has just one top 10 to go along with missed cuts in 4 of the last 5.
The big enigmas for the Match 2 betting are Manning and Brady. The 44-year old Manning has a 2 extra years on the 42-year-old Brady. Manning is a bit of a better golfer though, sporting a 6.4 handicap to Brady’s 8.1. Manning has also presumably had more time to golf recently while being retired. Brady meanwhile has been preparing for his first season with Tampa Bay.
The Rules
This is an 18 round match play event. The front 9 will be best ball format where each team will play the best shot of the two. The low score wins the hole and a point while a draw gives each team 1/2 a point. The match is over at the end of 18 rounds or when 1 team has ‘clinched’ (fewer holes left than points needed). With all due respect to the golf prowess of Manning and Brady, the front 9 essentially becomes Tiger vs. Phil.
The back 9 of the Match 2 betting will be played alternating shots. All four players will hit off the tee but then alternate shots depending on whose drive is used. This actually favors the Mickelson / Brady team as Phil averaged 306 yards off his drive in 2019 compared to 291 for Woods.
The Course
One of the biggest reasons to back Woods and Manning in the Match 2 betting is the course. This event is being played at Medalist Golf Club in Hobe Sound, FL. It just so happens that Woods is a member there and holds the course record (along with Rickie Fowler) at -10. Hobe Sound is about 15 minutes from Woods’ home in Jupiter Island so would it be fair to say he has 100s of rounds at the Medalist?
The Match 2 Betting Preview
Woods and Manning should have the edge here due to Woods’ familiarity with the course, even enough to lay the hefty -185 price tag. There are also plenty of props available for the Match 2 betting. A tie on hole 1 (-120) is feasible considering the nerves of the whole event (even without fans) and the best shot format.
A ROI of +165 for the Match to be won on hole 18 or extras isn’t a bad wager either considering Woods and Mickelson needed 22 to win their first meeting (not to mention the ratings are going to be insane for this in this sports deprived setting). Phil Mickelson at -110 vs. Woods (-120) for the longest drive on Hole 1 is nice odds too considering Phil is 42nd the last 50 rounds in driving distance (Woods 140th). Manning (-165) vs. Brady (+125) on a mid-range par 3 at #4 should also favor Manning, who just played the course Friday.
Picks:
Woods / Manning to win -185
Hole 1 winner: tie (-120)
Longest drive hole 1: Mickelson -110
Match to be won on hole 18 or extras +165
Closest to the pin on hole 4 (Manning vs. Brady): Manning -165
