Minnesota is a huge -263 favorite in the May 26th AL free pick against Chicago. Even the run line (-1.5) sees the Twins at a -145 price tag. These odds come with good reason, Rocco Baldelli’s team is on an offensive tear right now and is facing a Sox pitcher that has had his share of issues recently. The public is going to be hammering Minnesota here, does that make Chicago the contrarian play?
Chicago Woeful Offensively Lately
Not only is Chicago facing a streaking offense today, their own offense has been on a downturn recently. Rick Renteria’s team has been outscored 19-5 through the first two losses of this series including a 1-8 defeat on Saturday afternoon. Chicago has now scored 2 runs or less in 4 of the last 7 games. Jose Abreu did hit his 3rd HR over the last 7 games on Saturday and Eloy Jimenez has also went yard three times over that span. The White Sox have just one other HR over the past week though and are facing a very tough pitching matchup again in the May 26th AL free pick.
Besides their offensive struggles, Chicago is in a rough spot on the mound Sunday as well. Dylan Covey is 0-3 with a 5.71 ERA on the year and has allowed 4ER in 2 of the last 3 games. Covey has pitched into the 6th inning just once in four starts this season, putting pressure on an already taxed Chicago bullpen on Sunday.
Any Reason Minnesota Doesn’t Stay Hot Here?
The Twins have been persistent in this series, coming back from a 4-1 deficit on Friday to win 11-4 and taking a 5-1 lead by the 4th inning Saturday. The victory on Saturday was their 5th straight and 9th in the last 10 games. Minnesota has hit 15 HR in the past 6 games, four of them from Miguel Sano. Max Kepler has gone 10 for his last 17 and has an OBP of .619 over his last four games. Kepler has also gone 3-6 with a HR in his career vs. Covey.
Another thing that makes the Twins a solid wager in the May 26th AL free pick is the fact that Jake Odorizzi is on the hill. The right-hander has allowed 0ER in 4 of his last 5 starts. Odorizzi has a 0.89 ERA over that span and has held the Twins to a .203 batting average over 69 AB. That makes Sunday’s O/U of 10.5 tough to call. On one hand the Twins offense should dominate – but on the other how many runs can you expect from Chicago?
May 26th AL Free Pick Betting
The ML of -263 is too much to lay in any MLB game but the Twins do have value on the run line. Are they due for a poor offensive outing? Of course, but it’s hard to see that coming vs. Covey and the White Sox bullpen.
AL Free Pick: Minnesota Twins -1.5 (-145)
