The Big Game heads to Las Vegas and that, combined with sports betting being legal in more American states than ever, means there’s a real good chance this is the most wagered on championship game in North American sports history. The San Francisco 49ers (14-5) are -1.5 favorites over the Kansas City Chiefs (14-6), but what’s really intriguing is Super Bowl 58 totals betting.
The O/U for Sunday night’s game is 47.5, which at first glance seems on the low side. Sportsbooks usually boost that number up because taking the ‘over’ is a more popular wager for public bettors, but 47.5 still seems low. Which is the right side to be on?
Why Under 47.5 Has Value
Super Bowl 58 features some of the best offensive players in the game, but it’s been the defenses that have carried the teams this postseason. The Chiefs only needed 17 points to get past Lamar Jackson and the Ravens in the AFC Championship, and were #2 during the regular season allowing just 17.3 ppg.
The 49ers have been involved in some higher scoring games this postseason, but were 3rd during the regular season giving up 17.5 ppg. San Francisco gave up 31 points to K.C. in Super Bowl 54 which the Chiefs won 31-20, but Tyreek Hill made a huge difference to that Kansas City offense and Travis Kelce is also 4 years older now and looked all of 34 years old at times this year.
Both teams are going to try and run the ball on Sunday which could lead to a lot of clock burning. That’s Kansas City’s goal largely because they don’t have the WR weapons that they’ve been used to in the past and have ridden Isiah Pachecho to the tune of 254 yards on the ground so far these playoffs. For San Francisco running the ball behind Christian McCaffrey is a no brainer as he amassed 1,459 yards rushing during the season.
Why Over 47.5 Has Value
Over 47.5 has value for the simple fact that it’s just not that huge of a number to hit. The O/U for Super Bowl 54 was 52.5 and it fell short by a point-and-a-half, and although the Chiefs don’t have Hill, Mahomes has that much more experience.
Kansas City has scored 31 and 44 points vs. San Francisco the last two times these teams have played, a trend which should continue considering the 49ers have allowed an average of 26 ppg this postseason including 31 in the NFC Championship against Detroit. The Lions actually ran for 162 yards to go along with 260 passing so K.C. should be able to move the ball fairly effectively.
San Francisco only scored 20 points against K.C. in Super Bowl 54, but the addition of McCaffrey since then is a huge difference maker and the case could be made that Brock Purdy is an upgrade at QB over Jimmy Garoppolo. San Francisco was in the top 5 this season in total yards, rushing yards, passing yards, and points scored.
Free Super Bowl 58 Totals Betting Pick
Taking the ‘under’ seems like the way to go considering how good both of these defenses are and the way coaches may have a tendency to go conservative in the Super Bowl – but Andy Reid and Kyle Shanahan are not those coaches. Las Vegas should get a show on Sunday night and with all the talent on the football field in this game you have to go with the ‘over’
Free Pick: Over 47.5
