The Minnesota Twins come into the July 25th MLB betting free pick having lost two in a row and 7 of their last 10. Perhaps more importantly for Rocco Baldelli’s team is that their lead in the Central has submarined to just 2 games over the Indians who have gone 8-2 over their last 10. The White Sox have been pretty awful since the all-star break, but they send their ace to the mound Thursday as just +125 underdogs against the first place team in the division (MIN -155).
Twins Need to Break Out of Their Lull
Can a 4-game series with the White Sox as well as getting away from Target Field be a cure for whatever has poisoned the Twins lately? Minnesota just wrapped up a 3-6 home stand that includes being outscored 19-24 by the Yankees in two consecutive losses. The Twins continue to hit the ball well with 7+ runs scored in four straight games that includes Mitch Garver and Nelson Cruz both having 4 HR in the past week.
The bad thing about giving up 24 runs to the Yankees in the last two games is that Minnesota used up 6 bullpen pitchers on Tuesday. Jake Odorizzi could only go 4.0 IP on Wednesday, but the Twins were saved by a 5.0 IP performance from Devin Smeltzer. The reason this is a big concern because the starter in the July 25th MLB betting free pick is Jose Berrios. The right-hander threw a season high 113 pitches vs. the A’s 5 days ago but hasn’t been able to get out of the 6th inning in his last three starts. In fact, the last time Berrios had a quality start was June 28th at Guaranteed Rate Field where he went 7.1 IP, allowing 3ER even though the Twins lost as -185 favorites. Berrios has a 3.72 ERA on the road this year (2.10 at home) and is 1-1 with a 2.57 ERA in two starts vs. Chicago this season.
What Can White Sox Expect From Giolito?
Chicago starter Lucas Giolito had one of the most surprising first half performances in all of baseball but he gave up 6ER in just 4.0 IP prior to the all-star break. Since then, the right-hander has been OK with a 3 ER over 6 IP outing vs. Kansas City and then stellar with 6.2 IP of 1-run ball last time out vs. Tampa Bay. Those last two starts were on the road, and Giolito has actually posted better numbers away from Guaranteed Rate Field (2.76 ERA) compared to at home (3.61). He allowed just a single hit over 5.0 IP in his only start vs. the Twins this year on June 30th. Thursday’s O/U is 8.5.
The White Sox have a chance Thursday because of who they are sending to the mound but in order for Chicago to get the win at +125 their bats need to be way better. Rick Renteria’s team has been held to 2 runs or less in 4 of the last 5. Chicago has dropped 2 in a row at home and to Miami of all teams. Chicago has hit .238 as a team vs. Berrios, and James McCann has 3 HR in 15 AB vs. the Minnesota starter.
Top Trends:
- Twins are 3-7 last 10 overall
- Twins are 12-25 in Berrios’ last 37 road starts
- Twins are 0-4 in Berrios’ last 4 starts overall
- White Sox are 1-6 last 7 games vs. RH starter
- White Sox are 6-1 in Giolito’s last 7 home starts
- Twins are 8-2 in last 10 vs. White Sox
July 25th MLB Betting Free Pick
69% of the public likes Minnesota in this one and maybe the Twins do get a breath of fresh air getting out on the road where they are 30-19 on the season. Believe it or not you trust Giolito more than Berrios in this spot. The White Sox are pretty junk 4 out of every 5 days, but they have a different momentum when Giolito is on the bump.
MLB Free Pick: Chicago White Sox +125
