The Phillies come into the July 2nd MLB betting free pick trailing Atlanta by 5.5 games in the division. The Braves have an edge being at home in this one as they are 24-17 at SunTrust Park. That being said, oddsmakers have provided nice value on Atlanta with just a -118 ML (PHI -104). On paper this tilt also looks like a pitcher’s duel, but the O/U is on the high side at 9.5.
Phillies Turn to Nola in Series Opener
One of the reasons that the line is pretty much a coin flip in the July 2nd MLB betting free pick is because the Phillies send Aaron Nola to the hill on Tuesday. The right-hander finished 3rd in NL Cy Young voting in 2018 but struggled at times in June. This includes allowing 6ER at San Diego and 5 at the Braves on June 15th. Nola seems to have buckled down in his last two outings however, giving up 1ER in 15 IP while striking out 20 vs. the Marlins and Mets. Those two starts were at Citizens Bank Park however. Nola’s ERA is 7.28 on the road this season compared to just 2.85 at home.
The Phillies had an off day on Monday but belted out 13 runs on 17 hits on Sunday to avoid a second consecutive sweep vs. the Marlins. Bryce Harper hit his 15th HR of the season in that contest Harper has 6HR in just 94AB vs. LH pitching on the year compared to 9 HR in 214 AB vs. right-handers. Atlanta sends southpaw Dallas Keuchel to the mound on Tuesday. The Phillies as a team have hit .323 vs. the Atlanta starter in 62 combined AB.
What Can Atlanta Expect From Keuchel?
Late signee Dallas Keuchel is still trying to find his regular season endurance as he has failed to pitch out of the 6th in either of his first two starts with Atlanta. He gave up 3ER in 5.0 IP to Washington in his Braves debut and also allowed 3ER in 5.2 IP to the Cubs in his second outing. Both of those starts were on the road however and the left-hander will be making his SunTrust Park debut as a member of Atlanta in the July 2nd MLB betting free pick.
Atlanta has solid value at -118 in this one considering they’ve gone 20-8 in their last 28 overall. The Braves also had an off day on Monday and will be playing their first game since June 19th after a 6-4 road trip. Atlanta has also faced Nola twice already this season, being held to 2 hits on opening day but notching 5ER on June 15th. Josh Donaldson is 6-11 (.545) with 2 HR vs. the Braves starter and Ronald Acuna, Jr. has 4 hits in 9AB (.444).
Top Trends:
- Phillies are 5-2 last 7 overall
- Phillies are 1-6 last 7 road games
- Phillies are 8-3 in Nola’s last 11 starts
- Braves are 10-2 last 12 home games
- Braves are 20-8 last 28 overall
July 2nd MLB Free Pick Betting
It’s hard to know what to expect from Keuchel tonight and Nola has looked better as of late (even though that was against the Marlins and Mets). The Phillies haven’t looked very good on the road lately though and the Braves have some solid momentum, especially when playing their first home game in nearly two weeks.
MLB Free Pick: Atlanta Braves -118
