The May 14th Yankees at Twins betting matchup is essentially a coin flip as both teams have been very hot as of late. New York has come out on top in 7 of their last 9 games while Minnesota has victories in 17 of their last 20 thanks in part to a recent 12-game win streak.
Despite the Twins being at home and being on fire over the past month, it’s the Yankees who are slight -116 favorites on Tuesday. Minnesota is -102 in what looks like a pitcher’s matchup despite the 8.5 O/U.
Why the Yankees Have Value on Tuesday
It’s somewhat surprising that the Yankees are the slight road favorites in the series opener considering they’ve lost two of their last four. That being said they did end their most recent series in Tampa with a 10-6 win on Sunday and recently had a 5-game win streak prior to a 4-3 loss to Houston on May 9th.
New York got their power going on Sunday with HRs from Aaron Judge, Gleyber Torres, Jose Trevino 2, and Jahmai Jones. The Yankees have now scored 9+ runs in 3 of their last 6 games, so they are quite literally very hit or miss lately.
The Yankees shouldn’t need a whole lot of offense on Tuesday if starter Carlos Rodon (3-2, 3.56 ERA) pitches like he has lately. The left-hander has allowed 2 ER or less in three of his last four starts.
Why the Twins Have Value on Tuesday
The Yankees had a nice offensive outing on Sunday, but they were also held to 7 total runs over their previous three games so these bats can be on the inconsistent side. The same goes for Rodon, he’s had quality starts in three of his last four, but also allowed 6ER at the Orioles on May 2nd. Rodon has a 4.94 ERA in five road starts compared to 1.86 in three outings at home.
The Minnesota offense should be able to produce in the series opener as they’ve scored 5+ runs in five of their last six and hit Rodon fairly well as a team with a combined .290 average. Carlos Santana is 13-34 in his career against Rodon and Christian Vazquez also hits over .300 against the left-hander.
Chris Paddack (4-1, 4.34 ERA) looks to continue his resurgent year on Tuesday after missing most of the last two seasons after undergoing Tommy John Surgery. Paddack has a 0.79 ERA in two May starts and has a 1.17 ERA at home compared to 9.42 on the road.
Free May 14th Yankees at Twins Betting Pick
Both teams are hot so a pick on either side is not a controversial one. The big outlier here is Rodon being so bad on the road this season compared to Paddack being nearly unhittable on the road which makes the Twins the play.
Free Pick: Twins -102
