QB questions are aplenty heading into the Week 9 NCAAF LSU at Auburn betting matchup. LSU has lost their #1 Myles Brennan for the foreseeable future, but got a very efficient performance from their backup last week. Auburn is sticking with their young QB for the time being, but he’s been extremely turnover prone.
TJ Finley and Bo Nix aside, Saturday afternoon’s game (3:30 PM ET, CBS) is a fork-in-the-road contest for both squads. They each have two losses, which is devastating in the SEC, but Auburn has games with Texas A&M and Auburn left after Saturday. Four of LSU’s final five opponents after Saturday are ahead of them in the standings. A win for either keeps hope alive, a loss seals your fate. That could be why oddsmakers opened this tilt a PK.
LSU Riding With Finley
LSU Junior Myles Brennan had been on a tear to start the season, throwing for 335+ yards in three straight games before suffering an oblique injury. The Tigers offense had put up 34+ points in each of those games, but didn’t miss a beat last week with TJ Finley under center.
The freshman out of Ponchatoula, LA went 17/21 with 2TD and 1 INT as LSU thumped South Carolina 52-24 at home as -4.5 favorites. The Gamecocks’ defense isn’t exactly renowned, but this isn’t your father’s Auburn D either, as they 65th in the country vs. the run and 40th vs. the pass. LSU added 276 yards on the ground vs. SC, powered by a season-high 135 from Tyrion Davis-Price.
LSU’s defense has settled down nicely since the introduction to the Air Raid Offense in the season opening 44-34 loss to Mike Leach and Mississippi State. The big blemish for the Tigers the last three games is a 45-41 loss at Missouri in week 6 as -14 favorites. Mizzu QB Connor Bazelak was 29/34 for 406 yards and 4TD, 0 INT. That’s a reason for optimism for Nix and Auburn on Saturday.
Auburn Shoots for Consistency
Auburn has flip-flopped wins and losses the first five games of this season, which doesn’t bode well as they come in off a 35-28 victory at Ole Miss as -3.5 favorites last week. Regardless, last week’s road win was a nice bounce back for an Auburn team that lost 30-22 as 3 point favorites at South Carolina the game before – the same Gamecocks team that LSU beat by 28 last week, albeit in Baton Rouge.
Auburn was doomed by Bo Nix turnovers in the loss at Columbia. The Tigers outgained SC 209-158 on the ground and 272-144 through the air. Nix was just 24/47 passing though with 3 INTs. The Gamecocks had scoring drives of 29, 49, and 8 yards as a result. Nix was better last week going 23/30 for 238 and a TD, but he’s not out of the woods yet.
Auburn lost this matchup only 23-20 last season as +11.5 underdogs at Baton Rouge. That was against a Louisiana State team that had NFL bound players such as Joe Burrow, Clyde Edwards-Helaire, and Justin Jefferson to name a few and that would go on to be the undefeated national champions. Burrow had 321 yards, but just 1 TD and 1 INT. Nix was just 15/35 for 157 and Auburn had only 130 yards on the ground. It was amazing the game was that close.
NCAAF LSU at Auburn Betting Free Pick
LSU has gone 3-1 in the last four meetings, but the biggest margin of victory for either team over that span was a 5-point Auburn win in 2016. Even with all the talent of the last 10 meetings, only one head-to-head meeting has gone ‘over’ Saturday’s total of 63.5
Auburn 27 – LSU 23
Free Pick: Under 63.5
