It is that time in the NFL season when the two top teams from the NFC and AFC meet in the big game, the Super Bowl. Along with posting our Super Bowl LIII totals pick, we also have our Super Bowl LIII spread free pick for the game. Please be sure to read both previews prior to betting. Each of these teams have exceptionally productive offenses as well as defenses that can, at times, allow big plays. Our Super Bowl LIII totals pick has the over/under at an even 56.0. That total could certainly be hit and surpassed in this game. Here is our take on the Super Bowl LIII totals, along with our free pick.
Points Galore in Playoffs
The Patriots have scored an average of 39 PPG in the playoffs and 27.3 in the regular season. The Rams have been good for 28 PPG in the postseason and 32.9 PPG over the course of their 16-game season. Plus, the Pats have allowed 30 PPG in the playoffs. However, they’ve given up just 21.3 PPG in the regular season. Los Angeles’ PA is 22.5 per game in the postseason, and on average, 23.8 over the course of the 17-week season.
In the playoffs thus far, these two teams have been scoring and giving up enough points to hit the over. Plus, their regular-season totals look promising. Our Super Bowl LIII totals pick likes the over at 56.0.
Edge: Over
Trends and Defenses
When we look at trends and projections, we come in very close on the over/under. But when we consider the defenses on both teams, we start leaning towards the over. We don’t expect either team’s D to be lights out for the entire game. In fact, we think the offenses could get off to a slow start in this game and by the second half, as defenses get worn down, project that there will be a lot of scoring.
Each of these teams is capable of putting 20 or more points on the scoreboard in the second half and even in just the final quarter. So, 40 points in the second-half is a solid possibility. If their total for the first half comes in at around 20, then we’ve hit the over. This factoring has our Super Bowl LIII totals pick for the game between the Los Angeles Rams and New England Patriots leaning towards over 56.0.
Edge: Over
Keys to the Totals
- Brady and Goff both offer high-scoring potential
- Running games for both teams are fluid and tough to stop
- Pats and Rams both have multiple go-to pass catchers
- First quarter may start slowly, but look for second half to generate 40 points or more total
- Expect one defense to add to the total with a pick six
Edge: Over
Our Super Bowl LIII Totals Pick
Our Super Bowl LIII totals pick for the New England Patriots and the Los Angeles Rams is the over at 56.0. This should be a high-scoring game. We do anticipate about 20 points being scored in the first half and double that in the second. Take the over at 56.0.
