If you didn’t know much about the UNLV at New Mexico game for the 11/17 college football free pick, it would be easy to take the home team Lobos at -2.5 and head out for a Friday night. A closer look however reveals that UNM is only 3-7 on the year, and a disappointing 2-3 at home. The Rebels are slightly better at 4-6 and 2-2 on the road – but why are they underdogs in this one?
UNLV has won two of their last three including a 26-16 upset of 7-3 Fresno on the road as 22 point underdogs three games ago. New Mexico has lost five straight yet is still favored so is this just a huge Friday night trap?
Are Oddsmakers Pushing You Away From UNLV?
The Rebels sit in third place in the MWC division at 3-3 with a very (very) outside chance of making a move to first place by the end of the regular season (two losses in two games by San Diego State and Fresno State). UNLV is actually on an offensive uptick after freshman QB Armani Rogers suffered a concussion. In his absence Johnny Stanton has eclipsed 240+ yards passing in two games including 325 and 2TD a week ago against BYU.
It’s UNLV’s rushing attack that is actually top 20 in the nation however, averaging 239.5 ypg on the ground this season. RB Lexington Thomas has toted the rock for 1146 and 15 TD this year but will be up against a solid UNM run D that is 30th in the country allowing 130.6 yards per game.
How Can You Justify a UNM Wager?
Why are oddsmakers trying to talk us in to a Lobos bet for the 11/17 college football free pick? After all New Mexico has lost five straight contests, three of those by more than 30 points. Obviously UNM was outmatched last week against Texas A&M, but the Lobos still only managed to gain an atrocious 144 total yards. The passing game is basically non-existent for New Mexico as the best outing that QB Lamar Jordan has had in the past five weeks is 48 yards passing(!)
Granted UNM does have one of the better rushing attacks in the nation averaging 226.3 ypg (22nd in FBS) but top RB Tyrone Owens only has one game over 100 yards this season while second stringer Richard McQuarley hurt his leg against Texas A&M and will be out in the 11/17 college football free pick. Sure the UNLV D is porous (116th in total defense, 121st in rushing yards allowed) but UNM’s offense is extinct.
11/17 College Football Free Pick – Betting
Many times the code that oddsmakers give you are easy to crack – you can see WHY they want you on one side or the other. That’s simply not the case in the 11/17 college football free pick. UNLV is obviously the better squad and is getting points (+2.5) on the road against a bad New Mexico team.
Only 54% of the public are on the Rebels so maybe this game is way overlooked on a heavy Friday night of NBA, NHL, and NCAAB betting? Either way, the play is screaming at us.
Pick: UNLV Rebels +2.5
