There’s never been a 4-10 team in history that hasn’t gotten as much love as the 49ers have recently. San Francisco has won three in a row since Jimmy Garoppolo has taken over at quarterback. It’s almost a side note in this game that Jacksonville can clinch an AFC South title with a win – and can rise to a #2 or even the #1 seed in the AFC depending on how the last two weeks of the year play out. Oddsmakers have still made the Jaguars -4 favorites in the 12/24 NFL free pick, but by just -4 on the road.
Jaguars Better than a -4 Road Favorite?
Jacksonville is playing their best football at the right time of year. The Jags have won seven of their last eight, including three straight. Jacksonville has outscored their opponents 105-41 the last three weeks and although their defense gets a lot of credit, the offense has looked Super Bowl worthy lately. Blake Bortles has 7TD and 0INT the last three weeks and has thrown for 260+ in each game.
About that Jaguars defense though. Garoppolo has looked good, but not against the likes of the Jacksonville who is 1st in the NFL in sacks (51), and second in interceptions and total takeaways. The Jags might be a bit angry too as there are some rumblings that Baltimore is the best defense in the league. There’s not much more the Jacksonville defense can do, ranking 3rd in total yards and 1st in passing defense and points allowed – but they’re ready to knock the 49ers new savior down a couple pegs in the 12/24 NFL free pick.
Blake Bortles has more passing TDs than Matt Ryan, fewer INTs than Russell Wilson, a better QBR than Cam Newton, more rushing yards than Marcus Mariota, more passing yards than Derek Carr and a higher completion percentage than Carson Wentz. Conclusion: 2017 is insane. #Jaguars
— Jordan Schultz (@Schultz_Report) December 21, 2017
Are the Late Season ‘9ers For Real?
Since the Jimmy G era started San Francisco has beaten Chicago (15-14), Houston (26-16), and Tennessee (25-23). There’s some legitimate buzz around this team which is why the Jags are favored by only 4 points. Garoppolo has gotten better every week too, throwing for 293, 334, and finally 381 yards a week ago with 3TD to 2 INT.
San Francisco has potential on offense – but the Jags defense presents a great test. The real uestion for hte 12/24 NFL free pick has suddenly become how the 49ers defense can stop the Jacksonville offense. Leonard Fournette (Probable-quadricep) could be back in the lineup to power the NFL’s #1 rushing attack. Even without the rookie, Jacksonville ran for 138 last week against Houston’s #10 rushing defense and 158 two weeks ago against Seattle’s tough front 7.
Since Week 13, Jimmy Garoppolo ranks 2nd in NFL with 1,008 pass yards. #JAXvsSF #Jaguars #GoNiners #NFL
— SERC (@SERCenter) December 24, 2017
12/24 NFL Free Pick – Betting
Something to note about Jacksonville’s three game win streak is that the games have all been at home. Even so, the Jags are 4-2 on the road this season and have more than enough postseason incentive to not take this game lightly. The line for the 12/24 NFL free pick started at Jacksonville -5.5 but is JAX -4 at game time. That’s weird line movement considering Jacksonville is the 4th most popular bet of the day with 67% of the public liking the road dogs. There might be some big money coming in on Jimmy G, which could explain the line movement. Either way, the right play is on the team with the surging offense, the spectacular running game, and one of the best defenses the NFL has seen in the past 10 years.
Pick: Jacksonville Jaguars -4
